You heard it here first… Bold and fearless predictions!

After careful and detailed analysis I have come up with the results of Monday’s election!!!! I personally guarantee that this is what the House will look like*

	Conservative	Liberals	NDP	Bloc	Other
National #	36-37%	22-23%	28-29%	7-8%	4% (Green)
National Seats	142	55	80	29	2
NL	2	2	3
NB	5	4	1
PEI	2	2	0
NS	3	2	6
QC	9	13	23	29	1 (Ind)
ON	55	28	23
MB	9	1	4
SK	11	0	3
AB	27	0	1
BC	18	2	15		1 (Green)
North	1	1	1

*These results are guaranteed to be accurate +- 308 seats once in a blue moon…

Just for fun (and bragging rights) please put your predictions in the comments section.  Monday evening is sure to be filled with lots of excitement and surprises!

I have to say when I first started making the predictions, I expected the Liberals to remain in the official opposition but as I added up each province it became clear that they were in bigger trouble than what I first thought. 

Also does anyone know if there is a place in Winnipeg that will be hosting an election results party?  Is the News Café doing anything?

The Hill and Knolwton has a predictor where you can punch your numbers to see what the house would look like: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/

Here are some sites that have predictions as well: http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

In the end please remember to vote and try to encourage everyone you know to do so as well!

Nominations, federal election, provincial budget and too much other news

A few quick thoughts on the federal debates,  of the four leaders I believe Harper won the English debate by simply staying calm, on course and bringing everything back to the economy. Ignatieff did have some strong moments but was the inconsistent in the quality of his answers. He had a strong opening but a weak closing.  Layton wasn’t very effective at getting his message across and Duceppe was a non-factor.   I was also asked by CTV Toronto my thoughts on the debate you can view them here.  (I just happen to be at the right bar)

The French debate was interesting and I would declare Layton the winner. I was the most impressed by him just much more effective and had a good presence for the 2 hours.  Ignatieff has a similar performance in French as he had in English. He had some good lines but also many bad ones. Duceppe went over the top too many times in the 2^nd half which costs him. He came across as too emotional, having lost control a bit. Harper was a surprisingly a non-factor, barely engaging in the full 4 on 4.

In terms of nominations, I plan to update the whole list by the end of today. But a few notables off the top of my head in swing ridings include for the PCs Laurent Tétrault in Dawson Trail and Reg Helwer in Brandon West.  A large number of meetings have passed by so it may take a while to have the full board updated.

Just a few quick thoughts on the budget. The very timid raise in basic personal exemption is good news but I think it’s just too little. 250$ a year over 4 years is nowhere near enough to make us competitive . Also the issue of bracket creep wasn’t addressed.  Anybody Want a Peanut? has a great post about the taxation issue here.   

Another thought on the taxation issue that doesn’t limit itself to the provincial budget but ties into the federal election as well is the issue of tax credits. Can we please stop with all of these small niche tax credits for absolutely everything? Rather than creating all of these tax credits, which don’t help with the affordability of these services, why not ensure these services are affordable to start off. Or why not tax people at a lower rate to ensure the need for these credits aren't created in the first place? If a parent doesn’t have the money to enrol their child in hockey or piano lessons in September, giving them a bigger rebate check in April doesn’t make it any more affordable.

Also speaking of hockey, the real season started off yesterday, I hope the Canadiens will be able to match and add to their magical run of last spring! I’m sure it will be a great series with Boston! Vancouver sure looks like the team to beat! Go Habs Go!