what's in store for Manitoba politics in 2013?

NDP: Regaining their mojo?
Task 1: Gain control on the budget.
Manitoba's finances are in trouble. The government hasn't been able to manage the province's finances. Even with greater revenues, the deficit was larger than predicted. It is hard to believe the "fragile world economy" is the reason for greater deficits when revenues are higher than expected...

Task 2:  Find a "raison d'être." I challenge to name of key initiative or defining issue for Selinger? Bi-pole and Hydro are quickly falling into mismanagement fiascos rather than a defining legacy. There does not seem to be a driving goal for the NDP to take into the 2015 election. After 13 years of governing, parties can becoming complacent and we might be seeing the first signs of this with the NDP.

PC: Finding the right message
Task 1: Get back on track.
Communications need to be tightened up. After a good start with some solid policy ideas, the train got derailed with a disastrous December. They lost a great opportunity with the second quarter financial update to hammer the NDP on fiscal mismanagement but ended up playing defence.

Task 2:  Unite the team / balance the wings
Stories like this hurt. Even if there isn't a volunteer crunch, a narrative like this hurts the recruitment of new volunteers. The Maz episode also created more divisions. While Maz's controversial views were known to certain members they were tolerated due to the fact that he was a dedicated volunteer to the party. However his controversial views also kept some less zealous and more moderate volunteers away. As the Republicans and Tea Party have shown, moving farther to the right might motivate the dedicated base but ultimately it will lose elections.

Task 3: Idle no more
Aboriginals and First Nations are one of the fastest growing demographics and will play an important part in Manitoba's political future. They cannot write them off and the current dissatisfaction with the status-quo, especially with the NDP handling of CFS, offers the PC a great chance to make inroads in the community. A younger generation of first nations are much more pro-business and pro-development and there is an opening there for the party.

Mission Impossible? Breaking Fort Knox
It seems that breaking Fort Knox might be an easier task than breaking electorally into Winnipeg. The latest poll numbers had very little good news. They might be leading province wide and the youth numbers were good; the Winnipeg numbers were horrible. If anyone knows how to do this, I'm sure the PC Team would love to hear from you...

Liberals: Staying alive!
Task 1: Avoid irrelevance and generate excitement
The Manitoba Liberals have established a long leadership race to replace Dr. Gerrard. So far they have one declared candidate Robert Young while another potential candidate (Ajay Chopra) ruled himself out. There is still plenty of time to raise awareness for this race but having only one candidate is definitely not the way to do it. A one candidate race is a sure one way ticket to irrelevance.

Task 2: Replacing the Good Doctor with a Good Communicator
The past few elections the Liberals have been able to build solid platforms but have lacked a good communicator. While Harper proves that electoral success doesn't only come from a charismatic leader, he or she must be able to communicate. In replacing Gerrard, the Liberals first priority should be somehow who can communicate well above all else.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...

I don't think it is a controversial statement to say that the PCs have had a bad few weeks. From Pallister's home purchase story to the Brayd Mazurkiewich's inevitable and unsurprising public outing as a racist-bigot.  The PCs own behavior managed to push off the front page what should have been the conversation over the holidays at many family reunions in the province.

The fact that Selinger reneged on one his main election promise; that Manitoba will be in deficit for more years; and that our yearly deficit is larger than expected even if revenues are up.

The increased spending are even in departments that are easier to predict year of year which points to administrative incompetence.

Rather than discuss the fact that Selinger and the NDP are quickly running out of excuses for running up the provinces debt, Manitobans will be discussing Pallister's new house and Maz's "freeloading Indians" comment.

As the expression goes, the PCs were able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this month. Giving the NDP the best Christmas gift they could have hoped for.

A crazy idea: Income taxes

A few weeks ago when Brian Pallister proposed increasing the basic personal exemption I wrote this op-ed I thought of submitting to the Frep. I first heard this idea from my Econ prof during the 1st year of my masters. It has been floating in my head ever since. In the end I figured the idea was a bit too crazy for the Frep but tonight I decided to put on the blog to get some feedback! Let me know what you think. I have a few other crazy policy ideas that I might throw up here if there is interest. 

It is time to expand the conversation about taxes

Up or down? A Carbon tax to save the environment or a job killing tax on everything? Tax credits for enrolling your kids into a cultural or sport activity. The discussion about taxes in Canada over the past few years have revolved around these few simple easy to understand vote-buying concepts. I have also done some basic calculations as to how certain increases-decreases in budgets could impact departments. If anyone is interested in these I'm happy to share them. 

Last week, Progressive Conservative Party Leader Brian Pallister proposed increasing the minimum exemption for income taxes in Manitoba. This policy is desperately needed in Manitoba as it would help alleviate poverty and ensure Manitoba remains competitive with other western provinces.

However, in a healthy democracy, the discussion surrounding taxes needs to go beyond the simple rates we pay as citizens. It is time that as citizens, we get a greater say as to how our taxes are spent. 

The federal government’s use of an omnibus budget highlights this need even more. The use of omnibus budget bills clearly reflects the fact that local Members of Parliament have lost the ability to have any meaningful impact on government’s spending priorities.  Citizens must be empowered to have a say as to how their tax dollars are spent as parliament no longer represents their will.

Involving citizens directly in the budget making process is one step in reengaging citizens, strengthening our democracy and making governments more responsive to our needs.

The idea is straightforward; an income tax code where citizens decide which percentage of his or her taxes to allocate to each department.  If we can design such a cumbersome tax code with a multitude of evermore ridiculous tax exemptions, why not a tax code where people can decide where their money is allocated?

Take for example the provincial government here in Manitoba. It collected $2.8 billion in personal income taxes according to its 2012 budget. This represented 25% of total revenues for the province. In broad lines, Manitoba spent 44% of its budget on health, 20% on Education, 9% of Family services, 19% on Community, Economic and Resource Development and 7% on Justice and Other Expenditures.

Under this proposal, a taxpayer could decide to allocate his or her income taxes in the same proportion as these or increase their spending on health over community, economic and resource development. Each and every person would have the opportunity to support their priorities. This would ensure that citizens are more engaged as to how their money is spent. And increase demands for accountability from those who spent it.

For politicians and bureaucrats who may fear the prospect of direct democracy, it is important to note that only 25% of the budget would be impacted. This would allow an important amount of citizen participation but would still leave 75% of the budget in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats.

Ultimately the impact of such a move should be hotly debated. Would we see a large shift in public policy or a continuation of the status quo? Would health care continue to see its large increases? Would military budgets see reductions to the benefit of environmental policy? Would we see a shrinking or an enlargement of government? 

Our democracy can only win by discussing these questions and it is exactly this debate I hope to foster by proposing this.

Duff Roblin on Canada

"The dual culture of which people talk is, to some degree, my culture. But no one can bisect me. I am a Canadian. Part of my legacy is here, in la Belle Province, and this legacy is French. I know who kept Canada Canadian in 1775 by forcing American armies back from the walls of Quebec. I know in what language they voiced the cry of victory at Chateauguay during the War of 1812. I know who fought in 1837 to give Canada responsible government. I know that there were as many tuques as there were Scottish bonnets when Manitoba was created in 1870."
Duff Roblin

The fun answer to Winnipeg's red light camera problems and infrastructure fund deficit!

If we can use lotteries to fund the Jets & health care why not roads? 

Plus it's FUN!

The stand up guy

a must watch::

2 year anniversary of NWP, Leadership races and a poll...

For the first time, last week I had an op-ed published in the Free Press.


The piece discussed the impact of being left out of the New West Partnership on its 2nd anniversary.  The piece can be found here.

The piece generated a bit of interest as I even got an interview request for CKSB (French CBC). This interview focused less on the impacts of being left out and more on the political reasoning of why Manitoba was left out. On peut trouver l'entrevue ici.

For the success in both of these endeavors I have to say a big thank you to the Action Canada advisers for all their advice and training during my fellowship year! 


It seems the Liberals might be able to attract more candidates to their race than the PCs... Now who could have predicted that a few months ago... 


I know next to nothing about Chopra but he does seem like he could bring some solid positives to the struggling party. He is also a much more credible candidate than Robert Young. 


Does anyone know what his current job is? The article I can find only states: "More recently, he has worked with the lobbyist organization The Capital Hill Group, based in Ottawa"


Polling status quo (as exciting as the provincial political news cycle this summer)


Probe's summer poll numbers haven't moved much.  


With a leadership race that has all the excitement and media coverage of paint drying, I'm  surprised the PCs haven't dropped down a few points. While still within the margin of error I'm sure some Liberals are happy to see themselves back over the double digit mark.  One interesting note on the poll was the relatively high percentage of undecided at 24%.