A centrist commenting on politics in Canada's middle province from the "Centre of the Universe"

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Short Haitus

I'm sorry for the lack of posting and updates on nominations news and other posts. I know a lot has happened in the past few days and now with the federal election launched there's just so much to write about.

Unfortunately, school has decided that this would also be a good time to swamp me with work. (In my school's defense I've known since January about this work)

So in order to assure I don't fail my classes, I'll have to take a short break from updating the blog. I'm hoping to be back in time for the provincial budget.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Brandon West Update: Liberal Star Candidate*

 Yesterday the Liberals announced that George Buri would be seeking the party's nomination in Brandon West. Buri is a former Brandon School Division Trustee and Chair who lost his bid for re-election in the fall.

Turns out he is also a former provincial NDP member. This is what he had to said of the his switch and the two parties:

"I was a longtime Liberal and have supported them federally,"  "I feel more comfortable with the Liberals at this moment."

"Manitoba Liberals are strong on Brandon issues"

A couple of things strike me about this announcement. 

The first interesting thing is the party switch. The Liberals have gotten prominent community members from both parties to run for them this year. They got Marcel Laurendau in St-Norbert from the Tories and now Buri from the NDP. Are these party switches a sign of Liberal renewal?

Is the holy grail of Manitoba politics, the "progressive centrism" as Wesley would call it, up for grabs again? Have the NDP vacated the centre with Selinger and the Tories moved too much for the right? Leaving the middle open for the Liberals?

While a couple of strong local candidates helps them and puts them in the right direction but they have a long and steep hill to climb in the riding and the province as a whole. The Liberals finished with 398 votes or 4.04% of the vote in 2007 in Brandon West. So no one can accuse Buri of switching parties to bolster his electoral prospects.

What does this mean for the NDP and the Tories in Brandon West. The NDP most likely will not be thrilled by the news. The NDP odds of retaking the riding were greatly increased when Borotsik announced his retirement but this announcement of a stronger than anticipated challenge from Liberals makes their job even harder.The PCs on the other hand are probably happy to hear the news as a former NDP member running for the Liberals will probably have the effect of splitting the centre-left vote in the riding.

Given that Buri just recently loss a school division election it is interesting to see how he will fare at the provincial level. I have a feeling that his loss at the school division level was related to the Harrison Middle School issue. It will be interesting if  and how this follows him to the provincial level.


* The designation of star candidate comes directly from the Liberal news release. They called Buri a star candidate twice in the release. I know the Tories did not refer to Susan Auch as a star candidate in their release but is it common practice for parties to refer to their own candidates as star candidates in releases? I thought that was more of a tag given by reporters and the media to candidates.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Update: More Nomination News

I’ve been wanting to write this post for the past few days but school work and a cold has kept me away,. There has been lots of movement lately in nomination for all parties. I've also did a few format changes and created a separate page for the nomination board.

The Liberals released the dates for a number of ridings. A lot of the ridings are being contested. I found interesting that in the news release announcing the meetings they also named the candidates vying for the nomination.  I was surprised to see Rav Gill, who ran for Mayor in the fall, name on the list.

St. Vital – March 3:  Harry Wolbert
Transcona – March 10:  Faye Jashyn and David Kendall
Point Douglas – March 16:  Mary-Lou Bourgeois and Rav Gill
Fort Garry-Riverview – April 16:  Sean Goertzen and Kevin Freedma
Lac Du Bonnet – March 22
Keewatinook – March 22
Spruce Woods – March 26
Flin Flon – March 28                           

The updated PC website now contains a list of upcoming nomination meetings for the month and a page for all the nominated candidates.

This week Laurent Tétrault announced he would seek the nomination in Dawson Trail. He ran and lost to Cliff Graydon in a tight race for the nomination in Emerson for the last election.

Tétrault, now CAO of the R.M. Springfield, is somewhat of a controversial candidate in some circles given his past. He is from my hometown of La Broquerie and controversy arouse when the R.M. was the subject of special audits from the Auditor General. While no conflicts of interests or illegal activities were found some R.M. practices were found to be wanting.  Even since his departure, to say things are still rocky at the R.M.  would be an understatement.

It will be interesting to see how this past might affect his run for the nomination and to see who, if anybody will come out to challenge him. The fact Tétrault is a francophone bilingual candidate might hurt Lemieux in his stronghold of Lorette and Ste-Anne but being from outside the riding may also hurt his chances.

The PC seem to have turned the page in Interlake fairly quickly with the nomination happening earlier this week. If anyone has the name of the winner, it would be greatly appreciated if you could forward it.

They also have the nomination of Assiniboia tonight. I suspect Susan Auch will most likely come away with the nomination. I know there were two other people running for the nomination before she announced but I don't know if they still are. 

In other PC nomination related news, Gord Steeves names still keeps popping up in rumours that he might take a shot at Seine River. From what I hear it still all rumours but if it were to happen would definitely make the race in that riding interesting. They have also nominated David Bell in Selkirk and Dave Powell  in Swan River.

Susan Auch won the nomination for Assiniboia last night and Steve Lepke is the new candidate for the Interlake.

Here is a list of meetings for the PC:

Interlake – March 7
Assiniboia – March 10
Fort Richmond -  March 16
Transcona – March 17
Dawson Trail – March 21
Rossmere -March 25



The NDP have also Clarence Pettersen in Flin Flon to replace long time MLA Gerrard Jennisson.They have these meetings scheduled for the rest of the month.


Dawson Trail - March 12
Point Douglas - March 15
Thompson and River East - March 19
Brandon East and Brandon West - March 21
Fort Rouge - March 23
Kirkfield Park and Transcona - March 24
Riding Mountain - March 26

Monday, March 7, 2011

Provincial Budget 2011 and spring NDP game plan

Today's Free Press story on the budget had three interesting bits. Two being related to revised budget estimates and the third being the date of the budget.  I've crunched a bit of numbers.

Budget 2010 predicted:
Total Revenue Estimate: 12,719,614,000Total Expenditure Estimates: 13,264,179
Resulting in a deficit of::  544,565,000

Rosann Wowchuk announced today that expenses were an extra $233,000,000 but revenues were also up $287,000,000.

So for 2010 actual that makes
Total Revenues 13,006,614,000
Total Expenses 13,497,179,000
The revised Budget deficit at: 490,565,000

This means that the operating deficit is being reduced to 54 million, or by 9%. Meaning estimates were 1.75% off on expenditures and 2.26% off on revenues. I don't know if this is within normal ranges but being off by 2% seems reasonable.

However, what is interesting for me is the explanations given for increases in expenditures. The first set of issues fingered as responsible for increase in costs the "2010 flood, forest fires and preparations for a potentially serious 2011 flood" seem to make sense. It's difficult to accurately predict exactly the severity of natural disasters.

 Where it gets more interesting its the second part: "Other increased costs came in health care, public safety and 'support for families'."  Makes this list interesting is the ambiguity of "support for families." Could this ambiguous "support for families" be tied to the education grants issue raised by Dan Lett in yesterday's Free Press. I guess we will know once the budget is tabled.

A second interesting bit on the revised estimate is the source of additional revenues. The government cites them as coming from "$160 million in personal income taxes and $70 million more in corporate income taxes." They don't mention if this is a result of a more vibrant economy or due to the success of their stimulus package from last year, they also don't mention or do the calculations for the reduced deficit. I find this odd, I would of thought given that the planned deficit was being reduced they would of spun it as their economic plan at work.

Also the date is curious, given that we're being told by the Premier, almost on a daily basis,  to expect and prepare for a big flood this spring. So you'd figure he'd be busy with the flood at that point, right? The date of the budget allows me to indulge in one of my favorite pastimes of political speculation.

Here is my outline of the NDP's spring game plan leading up to the fall election:

Step 1: Have Seligner at forefront of flood preparation and raise expectations for big flood. Selinger needs to be at forefront to try and raise personal numbers (a -4 rating and 28% undecided there is lots of potential to move).
Step 2: Announce a slightly reduced deficit today, but not really. Just say expenses went up but revenues went up by more. Make sure to create as little expectation as possible.
Step 3: Have flood come (a big one but not too big to overtake preparations but big enough to justify all measures taken). Make sure to market it as a success of all the preparations this spring and Selinger's and the NDP's leadership.
Step 4: Just as all the flood preparations are saving the province from a bad case of flooding, release a budget with an even smaller deficit. Trumpet expanded revenues as a result of last year's stimulus package working even better than anticipated.

Come out of April looking like the guy who's in charge and gets things done. Enter in the summer pre-writ period in solid shape.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

March Nomination Meetings

Here is a list of nomination meetings scheduled for March so far:

NDP:
March 4: Dauphin
March 5: Flin Flon
March 12: Dawson Trail
March 15: Point Douglas
March 19: Thompson
March 20: River East, Interlake, and St.Johns
March 21: Brandon East and Brandon West
March 24: Kirkfield Park

PC:

I couldn't find any nomination meetings on their website. They've gone through a redesign so I may just not have the link. I'm almost 100% sure they have meetings scheduled for March. If anyone knows of any please let me know!


Thanks to the commenter who informed me that the nomination for Assiniboia on March 10th.


Liberals:

March 3: St-Vital
March 10: Transcona
March 16: Point Douglas, Keewatinook
March 22: Elmwood


In nomination news, Kevin Chief who ran for the NDP in the falls federal by-election in Winnipeg North is running for the provincial nomination in Point Douglas. The Ridings to Watch will continue once more nominations in the ridings are complete. The list may also change a bit given changes and nominations.

Rodger Cuzner: A Ministerial Statement from Dr. Seuss



Having written many Private Members Statements last year as an Intern at the Legislature, I've gained a great appreciation (or disdain) for these small two minute speeches.

I wish I could have written something this great!