Since predicting election results is always a good way to have some fun.
Here are my predictions:
Winnipeg North:
Kevin Chief and the NDP take it with a range of 35 to 40% of the ballots. Kevin Lamoureux and the Liberals come up 2nd with 28 to 33% of the vote and Julie Javier comes up third with 20 to 25% of the vote. I also think turnout will be around the 40% mark.
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
I expect Conservative candidate to Robert Sopuk to handily win. Although he probably won't break the 61% threshold Inky had, I bet he still wins with a healthy 48 to 53% of the vote. I think the NDP will finish in the high twenties and the Liberals in the high teens or low twenties. Of all the three by-elections today, I think this one will have the lowest voter turnout around the 35% mark.
In Vaughan, I will go with Julian Fantino. Even though the riding had been a Liberal stronghold under Maurizio Bevilacqua, I think it will go to the Conservatives.
I think that after so many years of one MP people might be looking for a change. Also from what I read it might have been Bevilacqua's personal popularity and not so much the Liberal Party brand that kept this seat safe for so long.
I think this by-election will see the highest turnout of the three, around the 45% mark, with a breakdown of 38 to 42% for Fantino, 33 to 38% for Genco, and the NDP candidate,Kevin Bordian to get around the 15% mark.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Sunday, November 28, 2010
Ridings to watch
I would first like to apologize for the lack of substantive posts in the past few weeks. I've been busy with school and I haven't been able to dedicated as much time as I would of liked to the blog. I hope that after this week once things slow down a bit I will have a chance to take a look at the throne speech and write a post on it.
Today's post is the first in a series in which I will examine what I think are the ridings to watch in the next provincial election. I've based my list on factors such as, incumbency, the 2007 election results, the impact of redistribution and party activity in the riding. (The numerical order of the list is just the order I plan on examining each riding.)
My list of ridings to watch:
- Dawson Trail
- River Heights
- River East
- Kirkfield Park
- Brandon West
- Portage la Prairie
- Riel
- Fort-Garry Riverview
- Dauphin
- Southdale
For example, Portage la Prairie is on the list for two reasons, a close result in 2007 and the fact that current MLA David Faurschou will not be seeking re-election.
For the PCs to be able to able to get back into government a minimum of 10 seats must swing in their favour. This is a big task because not only do they need to pick up a large amount of seats they must keep the ones they already have which is no guarantee. Three of the seats on my lists are already held by the PCs. Later I also hope to create a top list of target ridings for each party.
But for now it's back to writing papers.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Thank you!
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders Fields. Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders Fields.
- John McCrae
Thank you to all those who have served and are currently serving our country. We will never forget.
Merci Pépère et Mon'oncle Émile. On oublira jamais vos sacrifices.
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders Fields. Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders Fields.
- John McCrae
Thank you to all those who have served and are currently serving our country. We will never forget.
Merci Pépère et Mon'oncle Émile. On oublira jamais vos sacrifices.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Can we compare the provincial NDP in 2011 with the federal Liberals in 2004?
The more and more I look at the upcoming provincial election, the more similarities with the 2004 federal election I find. I know it isn't an analogous case but I have found some interesting similarities.
Here are some of the simple similarities:
Over the weekend the NDP launched a website and an attack ad: www.knowhugh.ca. After seeing the website and the ad I could not help but make connections to the 2004 federal election campaign. The NDP running a hidden agenda and negative campaign against the leader is analogous to the campaign the federal Liberals ran in 2004.
In 2004, the Liberals were able to retain a minority government but they ultimately fell to the Conservatives two years later. But when in 2006 the Liberals tried the same scare tactics and negative ads they failed. Eventually people just stopped believing the fear mongering and secret agenda message and elected Harper and the Conservatives. The fact that the Liberals had demonized Harper so much in previous campaigns likely helped his election in 2006 and re-election in 2008.
Now 11 months is a long time in politics, I think the NDP may have gone on the negative too early and the message won't stick for that long. Here are a few questions for discussion:
Do you think the NDP have gone on the negative too early and that Manitobans will tune out of the negative message after a while?
Do you think there are enough similarities between the 2004 election and the next provincial one?
Here are some of the simple similarities:
- Both the NDP and the Liberals have been in power for 11 years and are hoping for a fourth straight majority. The one small difference here is that the NDP will have been in power for 12 years come election time.
- The NDP will be running its first campaign since the departure of a popular leader same as the federal Liberals in 2004.
- Like all governments who have government for more than a decade there is an urge for a change in government in the electorate.
- In 2004, the Liberals under Paul Martin were trying to shake off the sponsorship scandal which fed into the narrative that the Liberals were out of touch with the electorate, I think that in 2011 the stadium and Bipole III debate here in Manitoba might have a similar impact.
- A stronger and united opposition: the 2004 federal election campaign was the first campaign for the new united Conservative Party. The fact that the right was divided in the previous elections had immensely helped the Liberals. The past decade was not kind to the PC Party, but overcoming leadership and financial issues the party is much stronger this time around than the last few elections.
Over the weekend the NDP launched a website and an attack ad: www.knowhugh.ca. After seeing the website and the ad I could not help but make connections to the 2004 federal election campaign. The NDP running a hidden agenda and negative campaign against the leader is analogous to the campaign the federal Liberals ran in 2004.
In 2004, the Liberals were able to retain a minority government but they ultimately fell to the Conservatives two years later. But when in 2006 the Liberals tried the same scare tactics and negative ads they failed. Eventually people just stopped believing the fear mongering and secret agenda message and elected Harper and the Conservatives. The fact that the Liberals had demonized Harper so much in previous campaigns likely helped his election in 2006 and re-election in 2008.
Now 11 months is a long time in politics, I think the NDP may have gone on the negative too early and the message won't stick for that long. Here are a few questions for discussion:
Do you think the NDP have gone on the negative too early and that Manitobans will tune out of the negative message after a while?
Do you think there are enough similarities between the 2004 election and the next provincial one?
Sunday, November 7, 2010
On Elitism
There has been lots of talk about Elitism in the media since Rob Ford's election and the midterms in the U.S. Today Margaret Wente from the Globe and Mail wrote a piece on it, complete with a quiz to see if you were part of this elite group. Apparently I failed miserably to be part of this group as I scored a -70.
Unfortunately, I belive Wente fundamentally fails to understand why this anti-elitist movement has sprung to life. In addition, her explanation as to why this movement has risen is actually an example of the movements causes.
She argues that it is the lack of social mobility and access to elite post secondary education that has caused this anti-elite sentiment to raise. I have to disagree. It is not the inability to become an elite that has non-elites angry at elites. Rather it is the elite's superiority complex that causes the movement. What Wente argues is that non-elites are jealous of elites and want to be them. In fact what the non-elites resent is this idea that they're are somehow inferior to the elite, that their political participation is less valued. That is the cause of the resentment. That since they drink Tim Horton's rather than Starbucks they are somehow unfit for office or their vote is less valuable. That the candidate they support is somehow unfit for office.
While she calls for elites to be humble, she misses the whole point of this anti-elite backlash. The non-elite don't want to become the elite, they want to be respected and treated as equals by the elite and until the elite get it, the backlash will continue.
Unfortunately, I belive Wente fundamentally fails to understand why this anti-elitist movement has sprung to life. In addition, her explanation as to why this movement has risen is actually an example of the movements causes.
She argues that it is the lack of social mobility and access to elite post secondary education that has caused this anti-elite sentiment to raise. I have to disagree. It is not the inability to become an elite that has non-elites angry at elites. Rather it is the elite's superiority complex that causes the movement. What Wente argues is that non-elites are jealous of elites and want to be them. In fact what the non-elites resent is this idea that they're are somehow inferior to the elite, that their political participation is less valued. That is the cause of the resentment. That since they drink Tim Horton's rather than Starbucks they are somehow unfit for office or their vote is less valuable. That the candidate they support is somehow unfit for office.
While she calls for elites to be humble, she misses the whole point of this anti-elite backlash. The non-elite don't want to become the elite, they want to be respected and treated as equals by the elite and until the elite get it, the backlash will continue.
On Framing
I believe that it is important in politics to not only get your message out but also ensure that the debate is framed the way you want it to be. This means not only framing your message but also framing the oppositions message. A recent example of successful framing was the Conservative's framing of the Liberal Party Green Shift platform in the 2008. With the 2011 election, less than 11 months away both the NDP and the PC set out to frame their respective messages this weekend.
The NDP has released a series of ads, both positive vision ads and negative attack ads. The NDP is trying to frame the next election between continued strong management by the NDP or a return to the 1990s under the PCs. The positive ad has Selinger talking about Manitoba's economic strengths such as our low unemployment.
(On a side note: The NDP denies that their negative ad is an attack ad, Leslie Turnbull co-chair of the NDP’s planning committee called it a “contrast ad”, but in reality it is an attack ad. The fact the NDP is releasing a series of add both positive and negative doesn’t change the fact the negative ad is an attack ad. See for yourself and be the judge)
On the other side the PC Party had their AGM in Brandon this weekend. After this weekend, it seems the frame for the PCs for the next election will be "the hope of a better future." This was the title of Hugh's address to the party. This too will be a strategy of "contrast" as the address contained both positive and negative messaging. The Tories attack the NDP for being soft on crime and failed economic managers while promoting the need for change and the PCs as the better choice for the future. (The full text of Hugh's address can be found on his Facebook page.)
I have to say I'm more surprised by the NDP's positive frame than their negative frame. I would of been surprised had they not had a strong negative tone to the campaign. But what surprised me was the message found in the positive message. I was surprised that they essentially billled the Selinger NDP as a continuation of the past decade. It surprised me for two reasons: the first being that Doer's personal popularity was a big part of the NDP's decade of electoral success and the second being the recent Probe poll finding that a majority of Manitobans believed it was time for a change in government. A government that has been in power for more than a decade should take this movement for a change very seriously.
Selinger has had two years to put his stamp on the Premiership but hasn't done much to create a new distinct direction to the government. I think this strategy indicates the NDP is betting that the memories of the 1900s are strong and negative enough to counter-balance this idea of change. It will be interesting to see if this bears true or if the NDP and Selinger will change its message to bill itself as something new if the first frame fails.
The NDP has released a series of ads, both positive vision ads and negative attack ads. The NDP is trying to frame the next election between continued strong management by the NDP or a return to the 1990s under the PCs. The positive ad has Selinger talking about Manitoba's economic strengths such as our low unemployment.
(On a side note: The NDP denies that their negative ad is an attack ad, Leslie Turnbull co-chair of the NDP’s planning committee called it a “contrast ad”, but in reality it is an attack ad. The fact the NDP is releasing a series of add both positive and negative doesn’t change the fact the negative ad is an attack ad. See for yourself and be the judge)
On the other side the PC Party had their AGM in Brandon this weekend. After this weekend, it seems the frame for the PCs for the next election will be "the hope of a better future." This was the title of Hugh's address to the party. This too will be a strategy of "contrast" as the address contained both positive and negative messaging. The Tories attack the NDP for being soft on crime and failed economic managers while promoting the need for change and the PCs as the better choice for the future. (The full text of Hugh's address can be found on his Facebook page.)
I have to say I'm more surprised by the NDP's positive frame than their negative frame. I would of been surprised had they not had a strong negative tone to the campaign. But what surprised me was the message found in the positive message. I was surprised that they essentially billled the Selinger NDP as a continuation of the past decade. It surprised me for two reasons: the first being that Doer's personal popularity was a big part of the NDP's decade of electoral success and the second being the recent Probe poll finding that a majority of Manitobans believed it was time for a change in government. A government that has been in power for more than a decade should take this movement for a change very seriously.
Selinger has had two years to put his stamp on the Premiership but hasn't done much to create a new distinct direction to the government. I think this strategy indicates the NDP is betting that the memories of the 1900s are strong and negative enough to counter-balance this idea of change. It will be interesting to see if this bears true or if the NDP and Selinger will change its message to bill itself as something new if the first frame fails.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
On Moderation and Centrism
According to some estimates, Sunday's Rally to Restore Sanity and or Fear drew over 200,000 participants. After looking at some of the coverage surrounding the event and discussing it with some friends a few questions came up.
Can centrism or a moderate political agenda motivate people to the same extent extremism can?
And does it take extreme polarization on both sides for moderates to become motivated?
Pundits, commentators, and political scientist often talk about the pendulum of politics shifting from the left to the right and vice versa. If we take recent history as an example, we could see Obama's election as a reaction to and a swing to the left following the Bush years. Following the same logic, it would be possible to argue that the Tea parties are a reaction by the right of Obama's election and legislative initiatives.
What role did centrists play in these pendulum swings? The recent experience seems to indicate the pendulum is swinging farther and farther from the centre. While many centrists are the ones who will switch their votes from election to election that provide changes in governments, these recent shifts are not the work of centrists but rather of the extremes on both sides getting involved and recruiting a larger number of members. Obama would not have gotten elected without the millions of disenfranchised Americans getting involved and the Democrat's left flank and the Tea Party did not win so many primary races on the support of centrist Republicans.
Is Stewart and Colbert's rally an example of centrists saying enough is enough? And will they show up for today's vote?
The fact that Stewart's and Colbert's rally took place only two days before the election is of great importance. I believe the date was not a coincidence and that Stewart chose it with the hope of motivating as many moderates, both from the right and the left, to go out and vote. The best indicator of whether or not this was achieved will be today's election results.
I truly believe that Stewart had some important messages yesterday and his speech is definitely worth a watch. Here is a link to Stewart's speech: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXmbzLI3pnk. The speech contains many sound bites and is typical Stewart but it is food for thought.
I do agree that there is a role for extremist or those that are farther from the centre in the public discourse. I believe it is important to challenge and question accepted notions but it is dangerous when these minority voices act and are as accepted as the majority. It is especially detrimental to the public discourse and unacceptable when these extremes vilify, degrade and promote hatred.
Introduction
Introduction and Background info:
After months of delaying I finally got my act together and wrote a piece for my blog. It's a shame that Curtis decided to pull the plug on Endless Spin. I have to say it was my favourite blog and it was in part his blog that inspired me to start mine. I had the chance to meet and curl with Curtis last year and I wish him the best in all his future endeavours. I can only wish that my blog will be half as good and half as successful as his.
The name comes from the coordinates for the longitudinal centre of Canada. It's marked by a sign on the Trans-Canada Highway just east of Winnipeg. Since I tend to believe my political ideology to be fairly centrists and that I now live in Toronto I thought the name for the blog was apt.
In order to better understand my commentary and biases here is a little about me:
I have both studied and worked in politics and I am currently working towards my Master's in Public and International Affairs in Toronto. After growing up in La Broquerie Manitoba, I spent four years in Montreal studying Political Science and Canadian Studies at McGill University. Following my B.A I spent a year working at the Manitoba Legislature as an Intern.
I am a Franco-Manitoban, so some of my posts will be in French but given that most of the provincial political commentary is in English, most posts will be in English.
I consider myself to be centrist but my ideology tends to lean slightly towards the right. In the interest of full disclosure, I have ties with both the Federal Liberal Party and the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but I won't be using this space as a party organ. I hope to use this space to discuss local and current events.
In between posts about politics and public events, posts about hockey and the Montreal Canadiens will most definitely pop up.
After months of delaying I finally got my act together and wrote a piece for my blog. It's a shame that Curtis decided to pull the plug on Endless Spin. I have to say it was my favourite blog and it was in part his blog that inspired me to start mine. I had the chance to meet and curl with Curtis last year and I wish him the best in all his future endeavours. I can only wish that my blog will be half as good and half as successful as his.
The name comes from the coordinates for the longitudinal centre of Canada. It's marked by a sign on the Trans-Canada Highway just east of Winnipeg. Since I tend to believe my political ideology to be fairly centrists and that I now live in Toronto I thought the name for the blog was apt.
In order to better understand my commentary and biases here is a little about me:
I have both studied and worked in politics and I am currently working towards my Master's in Public and International Affairs in Toronto. After growing up in La Broquerie Manitoba, I spent four years in Montreal studying Political Science and Canadian Studies at McGill University. Following my B.A I spent a year working at the Manitoba Legislature as an Intern.
I am a Franco-Manitoban, so some of my posts will be in French but given that most of the provincial political commentary is in English, most posts will be in English.
I consider myself to be centrist but my ideology tends to lean slightly towards the right. In the interest of full disclosure, I have ties with both the Federal Liberal Party and the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but I won't be using this space as a party organ. I hope to use this space to discuss local and current events.
In between posts about politics and public events, posts about hockey and the Montreal Canadiens will most definitely pop up.
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