Since predicting election results is always a good way to have some fun.
Here are my predictions:
Winnipeg North:
Kevin Chief and the NDP take it with a range of 35 to 40% of the ballots. Kevin Lamoureux and the Liberals come up 2nd with 28 to 33% of the vote and Julie Javier comes up third with 20 to 25% of the vote. I also think turnout will be around the 40% mark.
Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
I expect Conservative candidate to Robert Sopuk to handily win. Although he probably won't break the 61% threshold Inky had, I bet he still wins with a healthy 48 to 53% of the vote. I think the NDP will finish in the high twenties and the Liberals in the high teens or low twenties. Of all the three by-elections today, I think this one will have the lowest voter turnout around the 35% mark.
In Vaughan, I will go with Julian Fantino. Even though the riding had been a Liberal stronghold under Maurizio Bevilacqua, I think it will go to the Conservatives.
I think that after so many years of one MP people might be looking for a change. Also from what I read it might have been Bevilacqua's personal popularity and not so much the Liberal Party brand that kept this seat safe for so long.
I think this by-election will see the highest turnout of the three, around the 45% mark, with a breakdown of 38 to 42% for Fantino, 33 to 38% for Genco, and the NDP candidate,Kevin Bordian to get around the 15% mark.
Definitely think Fantino is going to get a win in Vaughan...unfortunately. Agree it was Bevilacqua's personal popularity (as we see in the mayoral election) and not the Liberal brand.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a playmate for Ford?
ReplyDeleteYou were wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong..Winnipeg North flies the red flag..LIBERAL..
ReplyDeleteJeez Pat, only 67% accuracy?
ReplyDeleteYep I did not think that Lamoureux would take it.
ReplyDeleteI'm happy to see him take it. Kevin was a hard working MLA and one that was truly dedicated to his constituents.
I just thought that the NDP would keep the seat. Maybe the NDP was suffering from volunteer fatigue after the mayoral campaign but from the sounds of it Kevin and his team were well organized and worked hard.
However, I would caution against seeing this as a revival of Liberal fortunes in the province. I think it was his personal popularity and not the liberal brand that won the day.