Action Canada Public Dialogues on Inequality, Green Energy and Creativity

Since April I have been a fellow with the Action Canada program. Action Canada is a national fellowship that offers leadership development for early-career professionals with an interest in public policy through cross-country conferences that enhance an understanding of Canada and public policy choices for our future. Fellows are chosen from all sectors, including business, science, government, academia and the professions.

Part of the program includes preparing a Task Force Report and public dialogue on a public policy issue facing Canada today. This year, Action Canada is hosting its public dialogue on November 4 at the University of Winnipeg's Convocation Hall from 7:30 to 12:30. Throughout the morning, three diverse panels of experts will address three public policy issues.


Panel 1: Prospering Together: How inequality and poverty are jeopardizing Canada’s human capital potential and economic future

The first panel will examine the potential for rising inequality and persistent poverty to undermine Canada’s prosperity in the knowledge-based economy. Since the 1980s, the top 20% of Canadian income earners have seen $27,000 added to their average incomes, while the incomes of the bottom 60% have essentially remained stagnant. Income inequality is rising faster in Canada than it is in the United States, by far the most unequal advanced economy in the world. Inequality and poverty are associated with a number of social problems that threaten full economic participation, including poor health and literacy, as well as economic segregation. This panel will explore the issues as well as policy recommendations that enhance human capital formation by reducing inequality and poverty – to harness the potential of the entire population in the drive to make Canada a leader in the knowledge-based economy. http://www.prosperingtogether.ca

Panelists:
Armine Yalnizyan
Economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives

Jim Milway
Executive Director, Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity

John Curtis
Professor, Queen’s University

Panel 2: New Ideas for financing Canada’s low-carbon energy future

The second panel will address the future financing of Canada’s low-carbon energy. As global energy demand continues to rise, high-carbon fuels such as oil and coal will become scarce, which, combined with climate change, will drastically increase the cost of energy. But considering that cleantech is an expensive venture, how can it be financed? This dialogue seeks to explore these issues.

Panelists:
Elizabeth Huculak
Vice-President, World Alliance for Decentralized Energy Canada (WADE) and founder E5 Projects

Tom Rand
Advisor at MaRS; Author of “Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit, 10 Clean Technologies to Save Their World”

Franz Tattenbach
President and CEO of the International Institute for International Development; former negotiator and climate change ambassador for Costa Rica at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)

Alex Wood
Senior Director of Policy and Markets, Sustainable Prosperity and former acting CEO and President of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE).


Panel 3: Our Home and Creative Land: Developing Canada’s Creative Workforce for Tomorrow

The third task force is examining the question of how to train Canadian workers to be more creative. Creativity is the genesis of innovations across all sectors when developing new ideas, products and services. The ability to further leverage the economic potential of those innovations will increase prosperity in Canada. This project examines how a national training program that enhances creative skills can be developed and delivered for Canada’s workforce. For more information you can visit www.creativecanadians.com

Panelists:

Dave Angus
President and CEO of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce

Catherine Graham
Author and founder of CMG Creativity

Alan Freeman

British economist and visiting fellow at the University of Manitoba

Mary Corrigan
Founder and Principal Tracking the Wisdom

I highly encourage everyone with an interest in any of these topics to attend and to please help spread the word about this event!

On Pride, the Jets and the election

So did the return of the Jets really help give the NDP in Manitoba a fourth term?

I'm going to argue that yes it did, indirectly. I believe the reason the NDP were able to win government again can be attribute in large part to one emotion: Pride. Or more specifically the explosion of it in the City and the Province and the NDPs ability to connect their messaging to this emotion.

Before the announcement of the return of the Jets, the PCs were enjoying a sizable lead in the polls and their message of change was connecting with voters. After twelve years of NDP government, while not overly discontent, Manitobans were feeling it was maybe time for a change in government. That it would be healthy, it was a message that was safe and connected with voters to a certain extent.

The return of the Jets didn't fundamentally change this idea that it might be time for a change but it introduced a stronger more dominant feeling in Manitoba's public consciousness: pride.

While Winnipeg's and Manitoba's pride hadn't evaporated when the Jets left, it had suffered a large set back. No doubt people had been proud of what Manitoba had accomplished over the past decade but we were never super boastful about it.

However, the return of the Jets gave us that reason to now be loudly boastful about how well we were doing. In addition, we cannot ignore the Bombers success in this fostering this feeling of pride. Just take the team's nickname: Swaggerville... It was another loud, boastful expression of pride. The entire province embraced this new boastful almost cocky demeanor. 2011 became the summer to brag about being from Manitoba.

Now the return of pride couldn't of guaranteed the re-election of the NDP but they won re-election due to the fact their messaging captured this feeling of pride. Rob Ford was able to win on connecting with the public sentiment that tax dollars weren't being used efficiently in Toronto. Just as the message of respect for the taxpayer was perfect for the time in Toronto, Pride was the word of the day for this fall in Manitoba.

Will it be a Progressive or a Conservative? Rural or Urban?

As expected, a list of potential replacements for  Hugh McFadyen is already being compiled.  There is a lot of talk about how the next leader needs to be from the Winnipeg in order to win in the City. I have to say I disagree.  What the PCs need is a leader that can connect with voters in the City not necessarily a leader from the city. There is an important difference. Someone from rural Manitoba can just as well connect with a leader from outside the city.  Automatically disqualifying someone with an address outside the perimeter is short sighted and unlikely to produce the desired results.

A second big question is whether or not the next leader will be from the "progressive" or red tory wing of the party or more from the "conservative" Blue Tory wing of the party. Given the fact that the past two leaders have been urban red tory faction, I fully expect for the rural blue tory to make a strong challenge and flex their membership muscle in this race. Also after seeing the success of the federal conservatives in the past election and the PCs inability to win with a more centrist platform in the last provincial election, I expect a shift to the right in this race for the party.

Whoever gets to be the leader after McFadyen is taking over the party in an envious position compared to when McFadyen took it over in 2006. When McFadyen took over the party the coffers were empty, the membership was at all time lows and moral was low. (Some great resources for the party's health in this area are Chirs Adam's and Thomas and Brown's books) Today while the party is demoralized after the defeat, the party has built a great fundraising machine and rebuilt it's membership base.

I fully expect someone from the rural more conservative wing of the party to make a strong challenge.In addition given the party's one member one vote system, gaining the support of rural areas will be key. While the membership base in Winnipeg has been expanded under McFadyen's leadership, when ridings such as Emerson, La Vérendrye, Winkler-Morden and the such are able to pull in 1400 memberships for nomination races they will play much more important roles than most seats in the City in the upcoming leadership race.

I expect Kelvin Goertzen, MLA for Steinbach,  to be under great pressure from supporters in the south of the province and his own riding to make a run for it. Whether he will or not it's way too early to tell but if he were to jump in, he'd have to be considered an early front runner.

Another really interesting name being tossed around from rural Manitoba is Brian Pallister. I had the chance to meet Pallister this summer and he definitely had more of the populist touch than McFdayen. Having been away from it all for a few years might have left him itching for a comeback. In my opinion he is an example from rural Manitoba who could connect with urban voters.

As for names from the City it is interesting to hear the names of Brian Bowman, former PC Youth President and recently appointed chairman of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. This Free Press story is all I know about him so it's difficult to comment. In addition the names of Heather Stefanson, MLA for Tuxedo and Michael Richards party President and Ron Schuler, MLA for St-Paul are also being thrown around.  

Also could one of Manitoba's female Conservatives MPs make the jump into the race? Shelly Glover's name is being mentioned in some lists but I think if Candice Hoeppner were to make the jump she would be a stronger contender than Glover given her rural roots and national profile.

A few thoughts on last night

Well obviously last night didn't quite go the way I had hoped it would. It was needless to say a disappointing night. But congratulations to the NDP and thank you to all of those who got involved in the election as candidates or volunteers.

Here are just a few quick thoughts on the night's results:

1)The power of the incumbant:
It's hard to believe that in the end all of the tight races, or supposedly tight races, went to the incumbents. A challenger's inability to win tight races was shocking (both PC and NDP, but mostly PC). The PCs failed to win any of their "target seats." Even the NDP didn't weren't able their targets such as River East. (due to redistribution and the lack of incumbent I don't see Tyndall Park as a steal) I think this election says a lot about the power of the incumbent in this province.

2) Hugh deserved better.
I personally liked him a lot as a leader and wished he wouldn't of stepped down. I think he represented a solid moderate right of centre approach to politics. While I don't like his decision to step down I understand it. Even with winning 44% of the popular vote and finishing only 2pts behind the NDP in popular vote, the inability to translate that support in a larger seat count meant he would of faced an enormous leadership challenge.

3) Electoral reform?
Unfortunately I don't think we'll be seeing a discussion in this province surrounding this topic... While as of now I don't know if there is a system I'd advocate for a change to but after the results of the last federal election and now this election, I believe it is time for a real discussion on the subject.

4) Liberal Leadership speculation
While the PCs will be looking for a new leader (more on that at a later date), I'm guessing the Liberals will be looking for a new leader in the near future. Dr. Gerrard did commit to completing his term but I believe he will step down as leader soon and help build the party with a new leader over the next 4 years. Early names being thrown around Paul Hesse and Anita Neville...Which after Anita's defeat in May and Paul's weak result in Fort Rouge they might both be weary of throwing their hats in the race. 


I'll have more on the fallout for both PC and Liberal parties in the next few days. I'll also have a post on cabinet speculation up soon!

Why Baird needed new business cards!

The tall mountain to climb: riding by riding projection and thoughts on polls

The hill the PCs had to climb at the start of the election was big. Now with the recent polls that have come out it seems to have become a mountain.

While the PCs are polling at numbers that got them elected to majority governments in 1995 and 1990 (42% range), the collapse in Liberal numbers have boosted the NDP to even higher numbers.  The two silver linings in the cloud for the PCs are the fact that their voters are slightly more committed to casting their ballots and that there is still a fairly high proportion of undecided voters (the Probe poll had 24% undecided or refusal).

Now with the poll numbers in, here are my predictions for the results on October 4th.

My methods to arrive at these predictions include a whole bunch of gut feeling, mixed in with wishful thinking tempered by a biased interpretation of poll results (i.e. these are more for fun than any serious commentary).  If you want a real methodological approach to seat prediction, I refer you to to 308's predictions.

Precition notes:
1) The Liberals should win 1 seat but it won't be Dr. Gerrard or Paul Hesse. In my short time of being involved and following Manitoba politics, I've learned one thing: Do not bet against Kevin Lamoureux...So that's why I'm going with the Liberals in Tyndall Park. Now I might be wrong (I'm very often wrong but that's another discussion) but I've bet twice against Kevin in the past and got burnt. So please Kevin and Roldan do not let me down!

2) The way that's I've broken down my predictions are in three categories: confident winner, leaning but could swing and too close to call.  The ridings that I think are too close to call at this point and hard to establish a clear leader are Dawson Trail, Dauphin and Seine River.

3) The one riding that to watch that is in play that I didn't think were on October 4th: Elmwood. From what I hear people are taking too kindly to Malloway coming back and the results of the federal and municipal elections puts it in play.

4) In my prediction I also assumed that the scenario where the PCs win 42 to 44% of the popular vote, the NDP come up with  39 to 41% and the Liberals between 8 and 10%. (This is where the gut feeling gets mixed in with the biased polling interpretation comes in).

5) In the end both the NPD and PC start from a solid base of 19 and 18 seats respectively wit the remaining seats leaning one way or another or being too close to call. Now I think the NDP is leading in 9 of those 20, the PCs 7, Liberals 1 and 3 being too close to call.

6) As of right now what I see happening is a 60% chance of the NDP forming a slim majority but the PCs could form government if the too close to call ridings go their way and they pick up a few upsets in the leaning seats. This election is in no way decided and every vote will count! The PCs are very much still in it and could pull through. The get out the vote becomes extremely important! So get out there and vote! (Most preferably for Vision, Change and Progress).


Riding by Riding Predictions

Party	Confident Winner	Leaning but could swing	Too close to call          3
Liberal	0	1	.
NDP	19	9	.
PC	18	7	.

Riding	Confident Winner	Leaning but could swing	Too close to call
Agassiz	Stu Briese (i) (PC)	.	.
Arthur-Virden	Larry Maguire (i) (PC)	.	.
Assiniboia	.	Jim Rondeau (i) (NDP)	.
Brandon East	.	Drew Caldwell (i) (NDP)	.
Brandon West	.	Reg Helwer (PC)	.
Burrows	Melanie Wight (NDP)	.	.
Charleswood	Myrna Driedger (i) (PC)	.	.
Concordia	Matt Weibe (i) (NDP)	.	.
Dauphin	.	.	X
Dawson Trail	.	.	X
Elmwood	.	Jim Maloway (NDP)	.
Emerson	Cliff Graydon (i) (PC)		.
Flin Flon	Clarence Petterson (NDP)	.	.
Fort Garry-Riverview	.	James Allum (NDP)	.
Fort Richmond	.	Kerri Irvin-Ross (i) (NDP)	.
Fort Rouge	Jennifer Howard (i) (NDP)	.	.
Fort Whyte	Hugh McFadyen (i) (PC)		.
Gimli	.	Peter Bjornson(NDP)	.
Interlake	.	Steve Lupky (PC)	.
Kewatinook	Eric Robinson (i)(NDP)	.	.
Kildonan	Dave Chomiak (i) (NDP)	.	.
Kirkfield Park	Kelly de Groot (PC)	.	.
La Vérendrye	Dennis Smook (PC)	.	.
La du Bonnet	Wayne Ewasko (PC)	.	.
Lakeside	Ralph Eichler (i) (PC)	.	.
Logan	Flor Marcelino (i) (NDP)	.	.
Midland	Blaine Pederson (i) (PC)	.	.
Minto	Andrew Swan (i) (NDP)	.	.
Morden-Winkler	Cameron Friesen (PC)	.	.
Morris	Mavis Taillieu (PC)	.	.
Point Douglas	Kevin Chief (NDP)	.	.
Portage la Prairie	.	Ian Wishart (PC)	.
Radisson	Bidhu Jha (i) (NDP)	.	.
Riding Mountain	Leanne Rowat (PC)	.	.
Riel	.	Rochelle Squires (PC)	.
River East	.	Bonnie Mitchelson (i) (PC)	.
River Heights	.	Marty Morantz (PC)	.
Rossmere	Erna Braun (i) (NDP)	.	.
Seine River	.	.	X
Selkirk	Greg Dewar (i) (NDP)	.	.
Southdale	.	Erin Selby (i) (NDP)	.
Spruce Woods	Cliff Cullen (i) (PC)	.	.
St. Boniface	Greg Selinger (i) (NDP)	.	.
St. James	.	Scott Gillingham (PC)	.
St. Johns	Gord Mackintosh (i)(NDP)	.	.
St. Norbert	Karen Velthuys (PC)	.	.
St. Paul	Ron Schuler (i) (PC)	.	.
St. Vital	.	Nancy Allan (i) (NDP)	.
Steinbach	Kelvin Goertzen (i) (PC)	.	.
Swan River	.	Ron Kostyshyn (NDP)	.
The Maples	Modiner Saran (i) (NDP)	.	.
The Pas	Frank Whitehead (i) (NDP)	.	.
Thompson	Steve Ashton (i) (NDP)	.	.
Transcona	Daryl Reid (i) (NDP)	.	.
Tuxedo	Heather Stefanson (i) (PC)	.	.
Tyndall Park	.	Roldan Sevillano Jr (Lib)	.
Wolseley	Rob Altemeyer (i) (NDP)	.	.

A quick rant on income tax rates

Thanks to Colin Craig at the Taxpayers Federation for tweeting this link to an Ernst & Young provincial tax calculator.
 

After playing around with numbers, I couldn't help but write a post about the importance of the tax system and tax rates in helping low income earners and the working poor.

The results really hit me when entering a yearly income of  $25000, $20,000 and $15,000.

At $25,000 a Manitoba worker pays $3,965 a year the highest rate in the country. Compare this to $2973 in Ontario, a staggering difference of $992.

At $20,000 a Manitoba worker pays $2675 again the highest rate in the country. This is $1117 than the country's lowest rate in British Columbia.

At $15,000 a Manitoba worker pays $1385 a year, once again the highest rate in the country! Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador are the lowest at 671$.

In a interesting foot note E&Y point out that these calculation do not include personal tax credits individuals may qualify for.  A lot of people might point to the generous tax credits offered here in Manitoba but the reality is that having a little bit more at the end of every paycheck goes a lot farther in having a healthy, balanced lifestyle than getting a bigger refund cheque every spring.

The government likes to make itself look good by offering a lot of these refunds but ultimately it is just taking with one hand and giving back with the other. Allowing people to keep their extra income empowers them to make the right decisions more than any tax credit scheme does.

Also it is impossible to discuss the raising of the minimum wage as an effective policy tool without at the same time discussing the tax rate on lower income earners! Raising the minimum wage without addressing this issue of high taxes on the lowest income earners in society is only a band aid solution to a larger problem.

Why I believe in Vision, Change and Progress

After a summer away from blogging and some thought I’ve decided to start blogging again. The election is just too tempting to stay away.

Over the summer some great election resources have been set up. I really like the Manitoba Election 2011 site and recommend it to everyone: http://manitobaelection.ca/ . They are a great aggregator of stories, candidates and information regarding the vote!

Over a number of post I’ll outline why I believe Manitobans should elect a Progressive Conservative government lead by Hugh McFadyen on October 4^th.  This post will mostly outline my ideology and why I see it fits with the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba. Over the course of the campaign I’ll also have other post just commenting on the election in general, the races, ridings to watch and polls.

At a base, I believe in a limited government that builds societal frameworks that maximize individual freedoms and opportunity between its citizens. I believe that the government’s role is twofold: first to create frameworks for the free and fair interaction between citizens and second to offer social services that create equal opportunity. 

I see this in opposition to a government that manages, limits and-or directs interactions between citizens. In this sense I think a government should ensures free and fair markets and provide basic services to ensure equal opportunity. I believe before embarking in any sphere of activity a government has the responsibility to ask itself "is this an appropriate sphere for the government to be involved in or is there a more legitimate actor to fulfill this activity?"and only once that question is answered in the affirmative should it proceed. 

In addition I truly believe in sustainable development. I believe in sustainable development in a very broad sense of the term. I do not link it only to environmental policies.  At base I see sustainable development as:

`Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’ (Brundtland Report)

This means a more sustainable future in every sense of the word: financial and economic sustainability, environmental sustainability, social services. This means controlling our debt, strengthening long term private sector growth, and ensuring quality infrastructure and social services.

This means we can’t finance government programs through long term deficit financing; that ultimately unchecked and irresponsible debt incurred today limits our future opportunities (as we see in the United States and Greece). 

Over the course of the campaign I’ll outline more specifically why I believe the Progressive Conservative Party and Hugh McFadyen share this vision and how I believe their plan would benefit Manitobans.

(p.s. I’m hoping to blog as much as possible but I’m finding that time constraints makes it difficult to commit enough time to producing good content so I may not be able to update as much as I’d like to. )

You heard it here first… Bold and fearless predictions!

After careful and detailed analysis I have come up with the results of Monday’s election!!!! I personally guarantee that this is what the House will look like*

	Conservative	Liberals	NDP	Bloc	Other
National #	36-37%	22-23%	28-29%	7-8%	4% (Green)
National Seats	142	55	80	29	2
NL	2	2	3
NB	5	4	1
PEI	2	2	0
NS	3	2	6
QC	9	13	23	29	1 (Ind)
ON	55	28	23
MB	9	1	4
SK	11	0	3
AB	27	0	1
BC	18	2	15		1 (Green)
North	1	1	1

*These results are guaranteed to be accurate +- 308 seats once in a blue moon…

Just for fun (and bragging rights) please put your predictions in the comments section.  Monday evening is sure to be filled with lots of excitement and surprises!

I have to say when I first started making the predictions, I expected the Liberals to remain in the official opposition but as I added up each province it became clear that they were in bigger trouble than what I first thought. 

Also does anyone know if there is a place in Winnipeg that will be hosting an election results party?  Is the News Café doing anything?

The Hill and Knolwton has a predictor where you can punch your numbers to see what the house would look like: http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/

Here are some sites that have predictions as well: http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

In the end please remember to vote and try to encourage everyone you know to do so as well!