Will it be a Progressive or a Conservative? Rural or Urban?

As expected, a list of potential replacements for  Hugh McFadyen is already being compiled.  There is a lot of talk about how the next leader needs to be from the Winnipeg in order to win in the City. I have to say I disagree.  What the PCs need is a leader that can connect with voters in the City not necessarily a leader from the city. There is an important difference. Someone from rural Manitoba can just as well connect with a leader from outside the city.  Automatically disqualifying someone with an address outside the perimeter is short sighted and unlikely to produce the desired results.

A second big question is whether or not the next leader will be from the "progressive" or red tory wing of the party or more from the "conservative" Blue Tory wing of the party. Given the fact that the past two leaders have been urban red tory faction, I fully expect for the rural blue tory to make a strong challenge and flex their membership muscle in this race. Also after seeing the success of the federal conservatives in the past election and the PCs inability to win with a more centrist platform in the last provincial election, I expect a shift to the right in this race for the party.

Whoever gets to be the leader after McFadyen is taking over the party in an envious position compared to when McFadyen took it over in 2006. When McFadyen took over the party the coffers were empty, the membership was at all time lows and moral was low. (Some great resources for the party's health in this area are Chirs Adam's and Thomas and Brown's books) Today while the party is demoralized after the defeat, the party has built a great fundraising machine and rebuilt it's membership base.

I fully expect someone from the rural more conservative wing of the party to make a strong challenge.In addition given the party's one member one vote system, gaining the support of rural areas will be key. While the membership base in Winnipeg has been expanded under McFadyen's leadership, when ridings such as Emerson, La Vérendrye, Winkler-Morden and the such are able to pull in 1400 memberships for nomination races they will play much more important roles than most seats in the City in the upcoming leadership race.

I expect Kelvin Goertzen, MLA for Steinbach,  to be under great pressure from supporters in the south of the province and his own riding to make a run for it. Whether he will or not it's way too early to tell but if he were to jump in, he'd have to be considered an early front runner.

Another really interesting name being tossed around from rural Manitoba is Brian Pallister. I had the chance to meet Pallister this summer and he definitely had more of the populist touch than McFdayen. Having been away from it all for a few years might have left him itching for a comeback. In my opinion he is an example from rural Manitoba who could connect with urban voters.

As for names from the City it is interesting to hear the names of Brian Bowman, former PC Youth President and recently appointed chairman of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. This Free Press story is all I know about him so it's difficult to comment. In addition the names of Heather Stefanson, MLA for Tuxedo and Michael Richards party President and Ron Schuler, MLA for St-Paul are also being thrown around.  

Also could one of Manitoba's female Conservatives MPs make the jump into the race? Shelly Glover's name is being mentioned in some lists but I think if Candice Hoeppner were to make the jump she would be a stronger contender than Glover given her rural roots and national profile.