Are Manitoba Liberals ashamed of being... Manitoba Liberals...

The other day I received a notification that I was being followed on Twitter by the @thinkerwinnipeg account. 

The account describes itself as "Placing Winnipeg in the path to be 1st Human right city in western Canada. Feb 2013 Visit thinkersconference.com for more info"

Curious, I decided to go check out the website. It looked like an interesting lineup of speakers and an interesting way to tackle policy discussion in the province. 

With Axworthy chairing the event and the description of the website and twitter account, it was obvious that the event had a small l liberal bent to it. Then as I looked further andsaw Jim Carr as speaker the first night with Dr Gerrard as introducing him, I wondered just how non-partisan this event was.  

As I continued browsing the website something looked familiar on the contact us page. The address that came up was 635 broadway avenue. Having worked at the Legislature and lived on Langside south of Broadway, that addressed looked very familiar. A bit of googling confirmed my suspicions that this was indeed the address of Liberal Party HQ. Then I saw this last little bit at the bottom of the website :

In a small font in light grey on a dark grey background, the evidence that this is indeed a Manitoba Liberal Party effort. "Approved by the CFO of the MLP"

This confused me greatly and raised way more questions than answers.

If they were able to organize such a conference, why would they not want to take credit for it? 

Why spend the scarce resources of the party on a public initiative but not do any branding on it? The party needs all the publicity it can get. 

Why is there no mention of the party on the main page of the website or any main part of the website? No party colours, not even the mention of the word liberal in the vision statement. The party is not even mentioned in the related links page! 

Now some of these questions aren't that important to the greater public. However, what concerns me the most is that the only real mention of the party on the website is under the donation's page where it is stated:

"Please make your cheque payable to: Manitoba Liberal Party (Thinkers’ conference), and mail it to the above address, or call us at 204-988-9385.

If you wish to donate online, please visit manitobaliberals.ca, and click on “Donate now”."

I wouldn't accuse the Liberals of deliberately misleading people into donating to the party or attending a party event, but again this raises more than a few questions. 

Is it just they figure they have a better chance of attracting people if they do not advertise it is them doing it? 

I believe they would do more damage to themselves if people unwittingly ended up participating in and donating to a party without their full knowledge. 

If so I think the Liberal Party should look itself in the mirror and seriously consider if it is relevant in the province as a political party. 

Considering how it is going around with this conference, I think there is a fairly obvious answer to that question.

First rule: do no harm... or in this case do no good

Dear Toronto Drivers:

Dear Toronto Drivers,

I know it can be scary when there is 2 cm on snow falling on the roads. I know this scares you and you wish the army's reassuring presence could be called in to deal with this hard time.

As stressful as this time might, I'd like to remind you of a few things that are still unacceptable behaviors on the road.

I encountered all of these today:

- to the van cabbie and the guy in the mazda 3: coming to a dead stop in the right lane of the off ramp of the express onto the collector on the 401 and then both exiting your cars to have a verbal altercations as I approach at 100 is not ok... Good thing I have good brakes and no one was behind me...

- to both of you again... then continuing this exchange in a cat and mouse type of race on the collectors is still not ok... thanks for almost killing me twice... passing me on the left shoulder as the left lane end is not recommended...

- to the grandpa driving the lexus who almost hit the divider for 401-410. I don't know what caused this but maybe its time to rethink your drivers licence. Your family and I would thank you...

- to the Cadillac Escalade on the Allen going south: a line up of 500 meters to get off the Allen to go west on Eglinton does not mean go all the way to 150 feet in front of turn then dangerously cut off whoever is there... We're both lucky I don't need a new front end and you a new bumper...

- to the middle aged lady driving the white Toyota: the three lanes on Eglinton are still three lanes even with snow. They do not become one big left lane and a small right turn lane...

- to the teenager driving a rear wheel drive BMW... I get it... fishtailing in the snow is fun... but please just like I don't want my front end redesigned by the back end of a Cadillac, I don't want to have my rear end redesigned by a BMW...

Thank you,
Amazed I made it home alive...

Why I want to support Idle no more but can't support First Nations Leadership

I believe in the grassroots movement...

I believe that we must change the reserve and Indian Act system. First Nations have the right to a stake in the management of natural resources. I believe that the best way to improve the quality of life on and off reserves is through education that respects the traditions, culture and language of first nations, through economic opportunities and most importantly through self-determination.

Until tonight I was lukewarm and leaning towards supporting Theresa Spence's hunger strike and the AFN leadership in their demands for meeting with the Prime Minister and the Governor General. Spence's hunger strike was a peaceful and honourable protest. A nice change of pace of highway and train blockades.

However after her and the First Nations leadership dithering and constant changing demands regarding a meeting the Prime Minister and the Governor General has made me lose faith that something constructive can  develop out of this movement.

While I can understand the symbolic value of having the governor general at the meeting (the Treaties were signed by the crown), if the First Nations leadership actually wanted to achieve results they would understand that having the Governor General in a meeting will actually hamper and stop any actual change happening at this meeting.

What bothers me the most is the constant changing of terms by both Theresa Spence and the First Nations leadership surrounding the meeting. Going from initial joy of having a meeting with Harper to then not participating and then participating again is simply mind boggling. They are constantly moving the goal posts as to what they wish to achieve.

Given the seriousness of a hunger strike and now the potential to Theresa Spence's life given how long her hunger strike has lasted, it displays a certain amount of bad faith.

I want to be able to improve the quality of life of First Nations across the country but so far the AFN and other chiefs have showed that they are more concerned with the semantics and visuals of a meeting than achieving concrete results. And for that reason I cannot lend my support to the First Nations leadership who claim to represent Idle no more.

what's in store for Manitoba politics in 2013?

NDP: Regaining their mojo?
Task 1: Gain control on the budget.
Manitoba's finances are in trouble. The government hasn't been able to manage the province's finances. Even with greater revenues, the deficit was larger than predicted. It is hard to believe the "fragile world economy" is the reason for greater deficits when revenues are higher than expected...

Task 2:  Find a "raison d'être." I challenge to name of key initiative or defining issue for Selinger? Bi-pole and Hydro are quickly falling into mismanagement fiascos rather than a defining legacy. There does not seem to be a driving goal for the NDP to take into the 2015 election. After 13 years of governing, parties can becoming complacent and we might be seeing the first signs of this with the NDP.

PC: Finding the right message
Task 1: Get back on track.
Communications need to be tightened up. After a good start with some solid policy ideas, the train got derailed with a disastrous December. They lost a great opportunity with the second quarter financial update to hammer the NDP on fiscal mismanagement but ended up playing defence.

Task 2:  Unite the team / balance the wings
Stories like this hurt. Even if there isn't a volunteer crunch, a narrative like this hurts the recruitment of new volunteers. The Maz episode also created more divisions. While Maz's controversial views were known to certain members they were tolerated due to the fact that he was a dedicated volunteer to the party. However his controversial views also kept some less zealous and more moderate volunteers away. As the Republicans and Tea Party have shown, moving farther to the right might motivate the dedicated base but ultimately it will lose elections.

Task 3: Idle no more
Aboriginals and First Nations are one of the fastest growing demographics and will play an important part in Manitoba's political future. They cannot write them off and the current dissatisfaction with the status-quo, especially with the NDP handling of CFS, offers the PC a great chance to make inroads in the community. A younger generation of first nations are much more pro-business and pro-development and there is an opening there for the party.

Mission Impossible? Breaking Fort Knox
It seems that breaking Fort Knox might be an easier task than breaking electorally into Winnipeg. The latest poll numbers had very little good news. They might be leading province wide and the youth numbers were good; the Winnipeg numbers were horrible. If anyone knows how to do this, I'm sure the PC Team would love to hear from you...

Liberals: Staying alive!
Task 1: Avoid irrelevance and generate excitement
The Manitoba Liberals have established a long leadership race to replace Dr. Gerrard. So far they have one declared candidate Robert Young while another potential candidate (Ajay Chopra) ruled himself out. There is still plenty of time to raise awareness for this race but having only one candidate is definitely not the way to do it. A one candidate race is a sure one way ticket to irrelevance.

Task 2: Replacing the Good Doctor with a Good Communicator
The past few elections the Liberals have been able to build solid platforms but have lacked a good communicator. While Harper proves that electoral success doesn't only come from a charismatic leader, he or she must be able to communicate. In replacing Gerrard, the Liberals first priority should be somehow who can communicate well above all else.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...

I don't think it is a controversial statement to say that the PCs have had a bad few weeks. From Pallister's home purchase story to the Brayd Mazurkiewich's inevitable and unsurprising public outing as a racist-bigot.  The PCs own behavior managed to push off the front page what should have been the conversation over the holidays at many family reunions in the province.

The fact that Selinger reneged on one his main election promise; that Manitoba will be in deficit for more years; and that our yearly deficit is larger than expected even if revenues are up.

The increased spending are even in departments that are easier to predict year of year which points to administrative incompetence.

Rather than discuss the fact that Selinger and the NDP are quickly running out of excuses for running up the provinces debt, Manitobans will be discussing Pallister's new house and Maz's "freeloading Indians" comment.

As the expression goes, the PCs were able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory this month. Giving the NDP the best Christmas gift they could have hoped for.

A crazy idea: Income taxes

A few weeks ago when Brian Pallister proposed increasing the basic personal exemption I wrote this op-ed I thought of submitting to the Frep. I first heard this idea from my Econ prof during the 1st year of my masters. It has been floating in my head ever since. In the end I figured the idea was a bit too crazy for the Frep but tonight I decided to put on the blog to get some feedback! Let me know what you think. I have a few other crazy policy ideas that I might throw up here if there is interest. 

It is time to expand the conversation about taxes

Up or down? A Carbon tax to save the environment or a job killing tax on everything? Tax credits for enrolling your kids into a cultural or sport activity. The discussion about taxes in Canada over the past few years have revolved around these few simple easy to understand vote-buying concepts. I have also done some basic calculations as to how certain increases-decreases in budgets could impact departments. If anyone is interested in these I'm happy to share them. 

Last week, Progressive Conservative Party Leader Brian Pallister proposed increasing the minimum exemption for income taxes in Manitoba. This policy is desperately needed in Manitoba as it would help alleviate poverty and ensure Manitoba remains competitive with other western provinces.

However, in a healthy democracy, the discussion surrounding taxes needs to go beyond the simple rates we pay as citizens. It is time that as citizens, we get a greater say as to how our taxes are spent. 

The federal government’s use of an omnibus budget highlights this need even more. The use of omnibus budget bills clearly reflects the fact that local Members of Parliament have lost the ability to have any meaningful impact on government’s spending priorities.  Citizens must be empowered to have a say as to how their tax dollars are spent as parliament no longer represents their will.

Involving citizens directly in the budget making process is one step in reengaging citizens, strengthening our democracy and making governments more responsive to our needs.

The idea is straightforward; an income tax code where citizens decide which percentage of his or her taxes to allocate to each department.  If we can design such a cumbersome tax code with a multitude of evermore ridiculous tax exemptions, why not a tax code where people can decide where their money is allocated?

Take for example the provincial government here in Manitoba. It collected $2.8 billion in personal income taxes according to its 2012 budget. This represented 25% of total revenues for the province. In broad lines, Manitoba spent 44% of its budget on health, 20% on Education, 9% of Family services, 19% on Community, Economic and Resource Development and 7% on Justice and Other Expenditures.

Under this proposal, a taxpayer could decide to allocate his or her income taxes in the same proportion as these or increase their spending on health over community, economic and resource development. Each and every person would have the opportunity to support their priorities. This would ensure that citizens are more engaged as to how their money is spent. And increase demands for accountability from those who spent it.

For politicians and bureaucrats who may fear the prospect of direct democracy, it is important to note that only 25% of the budget would be impacted. This would allow an important amount of citizen participation but would still leave 75% of the budget in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats.

Ultimately the impact of such a move should be hotly debated. Would we see a large shift in public policy or a continuation of the status quo? Would health care continue to see its large increases? Would military budgets see reductions to the benefit of environmental policy? Would we see a shrinking or an enlargement of government? 

Our democracy can only win by discussing these questions and it is exactly this debate I hope to foster by proposing this.

Duff Roblin on Canada

"The dual culture of which people talk is, to some degree, my culture. But no one can bisect me. I am a Canadian. Part of my legacy is here, in la Belle Province, and this legacy is French. I know who kept Canada Canadian in 1775 by forcing American armies back from the walls of Quebec. I know in what language they voiced the cry of victory at Chateauguay during the War of 1812. I know who fought in 1837 to give Canada responsible government. I know that there were as many tuques as there were Scottish bonnets when Manitoba was created in 1870."
Duff Roblin

The fun answer to Winnipeg's red light camera problems and infrastructure fund deficit!

If we can use lotteries to fund the Jets & health care why not roads? 

Plus it's FUN!

The stand up guy

a must watch::

2 year anniversary of NWP, Leadership races and a poll...

For the first time, last week I had an op-ed published in the Free Press.


The piece discussed the impact of being left out of the New West Partnership on its 2nd anniversary.  The piece can be found here.

The piece generated a bit of interest as I even got an interview request for CKSB (French CBC). This interview focused less on the impacts of being left out and more on the political reasoning of why Manitoba was left out. On peut trouver l'entrevue ici.

For the success in both of these endeavors I have to say a big thank you to the Action Canada advisers for all their advice and training during my fellowship year! 


It seems the Liberals might be able to attract more candidates to their race than the PCs... Now who could have predicted that a few months ago... 


I know next to nothing about Chopra but he does seem like he could bring some solid positives to the struggling party. He is also a much more credible candidate than Robert Young. 


Does anyone know what his current job is? The article I can find only states: "More recently, he has worked with the lobbyist organization The Capital Hill Group, based in Ottawa"


Polling status quo (as exciting as the provincial political news cycle this summer)


Probe's summer poll numbers haven't moved much.  


With a leadership race that has all the excitement and media coverage of paint drying, I'm  surprised the PCs haven't dropped down a few points. While still within the margin of error I'm sure some Liberals are happy to see themselves back over the double digit mark.  One interesting note on the poll was the relatively high percentage of undecided at 24%. 

Let's build a green legacy!

Manitoba has been blessed with an abundance of fresh water. We have been able to harness the power of many of these powerful rivers up north to make us a leader in renewable and clean energy.

Mega-dam projects were once the most efficient and profitable way to produce clean, renewable energy. Unfortunately, the NDP still believe that this is the way to build a profitable publicly owned Manitoba Hydro. Under the leadership of the NDP, Manitoba Hydro has been saddled with unsustainable levels of debt which has caused rate hikes for Manitobans.These large scale projects mega-projects reliant on spot priced export contracts are a very risky gamble for the future our crown corporation.

Manitoba's energy production must shift with the technology and the times. Mega-dams are yesterday's technology. We must move towards small to medium scale locally based energy production. This means we need to encourage citizens, businesses and city to become energy self reliant. To do this we must encourage the development of small and medium scale solar, biomass and wind energy projects.

Manitoba Hydro's is perfectly placed to act as a driver of this energy strategy shift.

The Green Legacy Program

Through a two pronged program it can encouraged the small to medium scale production of energy by Manitobans for Manitobans.

The Green Legacy Program would include:

- A Green Manitoba Hydro Bonds Campaign that would offer low-cost capitals to individuals and corporations who wish to purchase qualified renewable energy producing technology.

- A Standard offer sheet program similar to British Columbia's for buying back power produced by these small and medium scale energy projects.  

This program would create incentives for investments in clean technology while avoiding the rate hike pressures of a feed-in-tarrif, as is currently being seen in Ontario.

The Green Legacy Program would ensure a viable, sustainable, publicly owned crown corporation for generations of Manitobans to come.

 

Let's build a legacy!

The contest to become Manitoba's Leader of the Official Opposition and possibly the next Premier of the province should not go uncontested.

Given that Dan Lett's and my laments on the lack of candidates in the current PC leadership race haven`t inspired any challengers to step up, I have decided to take the drastic step of officially unofficially declaring my candidacy for the leadership of Manitoba's Progressive Conservative Party.

(Of course given that I am now a resident of Ontario, have in no way shape or form any financial or organisational resources, or have the permission of my chief of staff (i.e. my better-half) to do this, it shouldn't be too much of a problem right?)

So let's get this thing started! Let's start building a legacy for this great province!  Manitoba needs to do better and will only do so with a striving, healthy democracy!

As much as the NDP may now believe it is their natural right to govern this province, that it is okay to curry favour and cut the line for Jets tickets for their friends, together we can show them that one has to earn and respect the privilege to govern!

Together we can work confidently towards 2015 knowing that last fall 46% of Manitobans believed it was time for change and believed in our Party's vision.

We need to unleash and harness the power of Manitoba's diversified economy, bridge the divides between our rural, urban and northern communities, and transform our health care system to ensure that the growing needs of patients take precedence over those of bureaucrats.

Over the next few weeks, I will roll out policy issues that I hope, my esteemed opponent will engage in so that the Party can benefit from some grassroots debate on the future of this province. Together let's build a legacy for the party, a legacy for our province and a legacy for our children!

Manitoba needs to aim higher… higher than one…

Manitoba’s opposition parties need to aim higher. 

Pallister’s slogan to “Aim Higher” is particularly apt to today’s lackluster state of provincial politics.  Over the past few days I had been thinking that the PC leadership race really needed to have more than one candidate.  So today, I was really happy to please that Dan Lett at the Free Press had tackled this specific issue.

The Progressive Conservatives Party needs to aim for a greater number of candidates in its leadership race. As Dan pointed out, it is impossible to talk about a grassroots renewal with simply one candidate.

The 1000 membership rule could have been a great renewal tool and encourage a greater number of candidates, if it had been implemented differently.  A two-step process should have been instituted in its place.

Rather than make selling a thousand memberships across the province a requirement for becoming a certified candidate, and thus be allowed to spend and raise money. The rule should have been put in place as a final requirement to appear on the ballot for the convention. Candidates should have been able to become certified candidates with 50 party members supporting them.

This would have made it easier for a lesser known candidate to step up, start raising money and a media presence in order to reach that 1000 membership threshold; thus enabling a real grassroots renewal.  Less known candidates would have been able to publicly raise money and use the longer leadership period to their advantage.

The Liberal Party of Manitoba needs to aim for more than a couple dozen people to vote on the future of the party. The Party “grassroots” voted 25 to 17 to reject formal talks of merger with the greens.  While the party said it still has 1000 paid members, the fact that less people that come to my family Christmas party voted on the future of the party speaks volumes.  

The Liberals are in a dangerous position of being replaced by the Greens as the third place party.  Green Leader James Beddome proved himself a capable communicator during the last campaign and if the new Liberal leader fails to articulate a clear ‘raison d’être’ for the party, I wouldn’t be surprised if in the 2015 election there are no Liberals on the ballot.

If Manitoba’s opposition parties fail to get it right, the province risks becoming a one-party province like Alberta.  Let’s hope they don’t fail so that Manitobans can have the choice of aiming for something more than a higher deficit and higher taxes…. 

Manitoba Budget 2012: A hair affair?

The budget: a trim and highlights to cover up hair loss?

I was trying to think of the proper analogy to describe my reaction to the 2012 budget. The best thing (or funniest) that came to mind was that of a bad haircut; a haircut for man who is fighting a receding hairline and is having difficulty accepting it. 

Think of a haircut composed of highlights, a trim and styled with spikes even though the hair on top of the head is way too thin and is practically see through…That kind of bad... 

The highlights are the distracting goodies that try to scream of coolness, rejuvenation and 'being with the times'. This is what the announced extension to Sunday shopping hours was, an attempt to take attention away and pose itself as an innovative, "moving Manitoba forward" budget.

The trim and spikes, are the merger of MLCC and Lotteries and Regional Health Authorities.  In addition, just as a superficial trim and style change doesn't change or address the problem, the administrative efficiencies brought by these mergers will bring along only superficial savings and do nothing to address the problem.

Finally, the gas tax and various fee increases are the equivalent of spraying Rogaine. Just as this magical spray claims it will make up the difference in loss hair instantly, these small increases do nothing to get at the root of the problem (pun intended).

While the new haircut might help the person in question feel better about themselves and stay in denial, everyone else around can see the sad reality the man is trying to hide. In reality, Mr. Struthers and the NDP should come to accept their receding hairline and either go bald or try some of the new hair transplant ads I keep seeing in browser…     

Coming back shortly!

Hi everyone,

After a hiatus of about a year or so, I will start blogging again soon. Work, the Action Canada Fellowship and school didn't leave me with enough time to blog. I'm two weeks away from finishing my master's degree and should  have enough time to blog again!

With the upcoming PC and Liberal provincial leadership race, provincial budget, the federal Lib race and plenty of other issues I hope to be back around the mid-April mark.

Cheers,
Patrick

Action Canada Public Dialogues on Inequality, Green Energy and Creativity

Since April I have been a fellow with the Action Canada program. Action Canada is a national fellowship that offers leadership development for early-career professionals with an interest in public policy through cross-country conferences that enhance an understanding of Canada and public policy choices for our future. Fellows are chosen from all sectors, including business, science, government, academia and the professions.

Part of the program includes preparing a Task Force Report and public dialogue on a public policy issue facing Canada today. This year, Action Canada is hosting its public dialogue on November 4 at the University of Winnipeg's Convocation Hall from 7:30 to 12:30. Throughout the morning, three diverse panels of experts will address three public policy issues.


Panel 1: Prospering Together: How inequality and poverty are jeopardizing Canada’s human capital potential and economic future

The first panel will examine the potential for rising inequality and persistent poverty to undermine Canada’s prosperity in the knowledge-based economy. Since the 1980s, the top 20% of Canadian income earners have seen $27,000 added to their average incomes, while the incomes of the bottom 60% have essentially remained stagnant. Income inequality is rising faster in Canada than it is in the United States, by far the most unequal advanced economy in the world. Inequality and poverty are associated with a number of social problems that threaten full economic participation, including poor health and literacy, as well as economic segregation. This panel will explore the issues as well as policy recommendations that enhance human capital formation by reducing inequality and poverty – to harness the potential of the entire population in the drive to make Canada a leader in the knowledge-based economy. http://www.prosperingtogether.ca

Panelists:
Armine Yalnizyan
Economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives

Jim Milway
Executive Director, Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity

John Curtis
Professor, Queen’s University

Panel 2: New Ideas for financing Canada’s low-carbon energy future

The second panel will address the future financing of Canada’s low-carbon energy. As global energy demand continues to rise, high-carbon fuels such as oil and coal will become scarce, which, combined with climate change, will drastically increase the cost of energy. But considering that cleantech is an expensive venture, how can it be financed? This dialogue seeks to explore these issues.

Panelists:
Elizabeth Huculak
Vice-President, World Alliance for Decentralized Energy Canada (WADE) and founder E5 Projects

Tom Rand
Advisor at MaRS; Author of “Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit, 10 Clean Technologies to Save Their World”

Franz Tattenbach
President and CEO of the International Institute for International Development; former negotiator and climate change ambassador for Costa Rica at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)

Alex Wood
Senior Director of Policy and Markets, Sustainable Prosperity and former acting CEO and President of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE).


Panel 3: Our Home and Creative Land: Developing Canada’s Creative Workforce for Tomorrow

The third task force is examining the question of how to train Canadian workers to be more creative. Creativity is the genesis of innovations across all sectors when developing new ideas, products and services. The ability to further leverage the economic potential of those innovations will increase prosperity in Canada. This project examines how a national training program that enhances creative skills can be developed and delivered for Canada’s workforce. For more information you can visit www.creativecanadians.com

Panelists:

Dave Angus
President and CEO of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce

Catherine Graham
Author and founder of CMG Creativity

Alan Freeman

British economist and visiting fellow at the University of Manitoba

Mary Corrigan
Founder and Principal Tracking the Wisdom

I highly encourage everyone with an interest in any of these topics to attend and to please help spread the word about this event!

On Pride, the Jets and the election

So did the return of the Jets really help give the NDP in Manitoba a fourth term?

I'm going to argue that yes it did, indirectly. I believe the reason the NDP were able to win government again can be attribute in large part to one emotion: Pride. Or more specifically the explosion of it in the City and the Province and the NDPs ability to connect their messaging to this emotion.

Before the announcement of the return of the Jets, the PCs were enjoying a sizable lead in the polls and their message of change was connecting with voters. After twelve years of NDP government, while not overly discontent, Manitobans were feeling it was maybe time for a change in government. That it would be healthy, it was a message that was safe and connected with voters to a certain extent.

The return of the Jets didn't fundamentally change this idea that it might be time for a change but it introduced a stronger more dominant feeling in Manitoba's public consciousness: pride.

While Winnipeg's and Manitoba's pride hadn't evaporated when the Jets left, it had suffered a large set back. No doubt people had been proud of what Manitoba had accomplished over the past decade but we were never super boastful about it.

However, the return of the Jets gave us that reason to now be loudly boastful about how well we were doing. In addition, we cannot ignore the Bombers success in this fostering this feeling of pride. Just take the team's nickname: Swaggerville... It was another loud, boastful expression of pride. The entire province embraced this new boastful almost cocky demeanor. 2011 became the summer to brag about being from Manitoba.

Now the return of pride couldn't of guaranteed the re-election of the NDP but they won re-election due to the fact their messaging captured this feeling of pride. Rob Ford was able to win on connecting with the public sentiment that tax dollars weren't being used efficiently in Toronto. Just as the message of respect for the taxpayer was perfect for the time in Toronto, Pride was the word of the day for this fall in Manitoba.

Will it be a Progressive or a Conservative? Rural or Urban?

As expected, a list of potential replacements for  Hugh McFadyen is already being compiled.  There is a lot of talk about how the next leader needs to be from the Winnipeg in order to win in the City. I have to say I disagree.  What the PCs need is a leader that can connect with voters in the City not necessarily a leader from the city. There is an important difference. Someone from rural Manitoba can just as well connect with a leader from outside the city.  Automatically disqualifying someone with an address outside the perimeter is short sighted and unlikely to produce the desired results.

A second big question is whether or not the next leader will be from the "progressive" or red tory wing of the party or more from the "conservative" Blue Tory wing of the party. Given the fact that the past two leaders have been urban red tory faction, I fully expect for the rural blue tory to make a strong challenge and flex their membership muscle in this race. Also after seeing the success of the federal conservatives in the past election and the PCs inability to win with a more centrist platform in the last provincial election, I expect a shift to the right in this race for the party.

Whoever gets to be the leader after McFadyen is taking over the party in an envious position compared to when McFadyen took it over in 2006. When McFadyen took over the party the coffers were empty, the membership was at all time lows and moral was low. (Some great resources for the party's health in this area are Chirs Adam's and Thomas and Brown's books) Today while the party is demoralized after the defeat, the party has built a great fundraising machine and rebuilt it's membership base.

I fully expect someone from the rural more conservative wing of the party to make a strong challenge.In addition given the party's one member one vote system, gaining the support of rural areas will be key. While the membership base in Winnipeg has been expanded under McFadyen's leadership, when ridings such as Emerson, La Vérendrye, Winkler-Morden and the such are able to pull in 1400 memberships for nomination races they will play much more important roles than most seats in the City in the upcoming leadership race.

I expect Kelvin Goertzen, MLA for Steinbach,  to be under great pressure from supporters in the south of the province and his own riding to make a run for it. Whether he will or not it's way too early to tell but if he were to jump in, he'd have to be considered an early front runner.

Another really interesting name being tossed around from rural Manitoba is Brian Pallister. I had the chance to meet Pallister this summer and he definitely had more of the populist touch than McFdayen. Having been away from it all for a few years might have left him itching for a comeback. In my opinion he is an example from rural Manitoba who could connect with urban voters.

As for names from the City it is interesting to hear the names of Brian Bowman, former PC Youth President and recently appointed chairman of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. This Free Press story is all I know about him so it's difficult to comment. In addition the names of Heather Stefanson, MLA for Tuxedo and Michael Richards party President and Ron Schuler, MLA for St-Paul are also being thrown around.  

Also could one of Manitoba's female Conservatives MPs make the jump into the race? Shelly Glover's name is being mentioned in some lists but I think if Candice Hoeppner were to make the jump she would be a stronger contender than Glover given her rural roots and national profile.

A few thoughts on last night

Well obviously last night didn't quite go the way I had hoped it would. It was needless to say a disappointing night. But congratulations to the NDP and thank you to all of those who got involved in the election as candidates or volunteers.

Here are just a few quick thoughts on the night's results:

1)The power of the incumbant:
It's hard to believe that in the end all of the tight races, or supposedly tight races, went to the incumbents. A challenger's inability to win tight races was shocking (both PC and NDP, but mostly PC). The PCs failed to win any of their "target seats." Even the NDP didn't weren't able their targets such as River East. (due to redistribution and the lack of incumbent I don't see Tyndall Park as a steal) I think this election says a lot about the power of the incumbent in this province.

2) Hugh deserved better.
I personally liked him a lot as a leader and wished he wouldn't of stepped down. I think he represented a solid moderate right of centre approach to politics. While I don't like his decision to step down I understand it. Even with winning 44% of the popular vote and finishing only 2pts behind the NDP in popular vote, the inability to translate that support in a larger seat count meant he would of faced an enormous leadership challenge.

3) Electoral reform?
Unfortunately I don't think we'll be seeing a discussion in this province surrounding this topic... While as of now I don't know if there is a system I'd advocate for a change to but after the results of the last federal election and now this election, I believe it is time for a real discussion on the subject.

4) Liberal Leadership speculation
While the PCs will be looking for a new leader (more on that at a later date), I'm guessing the Liberals will be looking for a new leader in the near future. Dr. Gerrard did commit to completing his term but I believe he will step down as leader soon and help build the party with a new leader over the next 4 years. Early names being thrown around Paul Hesse and Anita Neville...Which after Anita's defeat in May and Paul's weak result in Fort Rouge they might both be weary of throwing their hats in the race. 


I'll have more on the fallout for both PC and Liberal parties in the next few days. I'll also have a post on cabinet speculation up soon!