Ridings to Watch: Portage la Prairie

Given the recent developments in a couple of the ridings on my ridings to watch list, I will change the order in which they will be profiled. This post will examine the riding of Portage la Prairie. Tomorrow’s post will examine the riding of Brandon West and the Probe poll.

The riding of Portage la Prairie has been represented by the PC party since 1977 and by David Faurschou since 1997. While it has traditionally been a safe seat, the race was tight in 2007.  Faurschou and the PCs won the riding with 3,344 votes (48.16%). The NDP’s candidate, James Kostuchuk, was only 400 votes behind with 2,935 (42.23%) of the votes. The Liberals were a distant third with 643 votes (9.25%).

As I mentioned in earlier posts the PCs need to be able to retain all their seats if they want a chance to form government in 2011. The fact that a long-time incumbent is not running again and that the NDP have been closing the gap in every election in the past decade, makes this riding an important one for both parties. In the 1999 election, the split between the two parties was roughly 800 votes (10%) but by 2007 this lead had been cut in half. The NDP closing the gap can be attributed largely to a collapse in the Liberal vote. The Liberals vote went from 14% in 1999 to 9% in 2007.

Today the PCs acclaimed, Ian Wishart, former Keystone Agricultural Producers (KAP) president, as their candidate for the riding. As a first comment, I have to say I am surprised this nomination went uncontested. There are pros and cons to having a contested versus an uncontested nomination. A contested nomination often reinvigorates the membership in the riding but it can lead to a fractured membership. An uncontested nomination can often bring a big name to a riding with a unified membership with it.

I think the fact this nomination went uncontested is more of a reflection of Wishart’s strength as a candidate rather than a lack of interest in the riding.  Being a former president of KAP, Wishart is already a household name in the agricultural community and any challenger would have faced a huge challenge in the nomination.

I think Wishart’s relatively high profile in the agricultural community and the area will help offset the lack of a contested nomination for the Tories.

I’ve yet to find or hear anything about the NDP’s or the Liberal’s candidate.  Given Kostchuk success in the last election, it would make sense for his to give it another shot. From my understanding, he is a popular teacher at the local high school and was a recipient of the Prime Minister's Award for teaching excellence in 2009.

I would also like to take this chance to thank David for his years of dedicated service and wish him all the best in his future endeavours.  Faurschou was the PC caucus representative to the Legislative Internship Program for many years and his dedication to the program enriched the experience immensely.

Ridings to Watch: Dawson Trail

The first riding I want to profile, is a new riding in the province’s southeast. 

While this riding is technically a new, non-held riding, I see it as Ron Lemieux’s riding. Given that Lemieux is from Lorette and that his main centres of support, Ste. Anne and Lorette are in this riding, I’d be very surprised if he did not run in this riding. I fully expect Lemieux to run in this riding and not the redesigned La Vérendrye.  The riding is also important to the NDP as it is their only representation in rural southern Manitoba. From my knowledge the Tories and Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate for the riding.

The fact Ste-Anne was placed in Dawson Trail and not in La Vérendrye, as was the case in the proposed redistribution, helps Lemieux’s re-election bid immensely. The support Lemieux received in those towns was crucial to his victory. But the fact that the town of Landmark is now in the riding helps the Tories.

In the last election Lemieux won by a comfortable margin, garnering 51% of the votes and winning 4,018 to 2,973. But I think, given the redistribution, the province wide mood for change, and certain local issues, the riding will be a lot more competitive in 2011.

If the PCs want to form government next October, this riding is an important key to that puzzle. A strong local bilingual candidate would go a long way to help the Tories election bid in the riding.

I think some of the local issues at play that will hurt the NDP and Lemieux in the riding are compensation for damages to crops caused by the Floodway in the R.M. of Ritchot and the issue of the old Villa Youville in Ste. Anne.  However, two issues that might help Lemieux in the riding are: the fact that the town of Lorette’s boil water advisory that had been in place since 2005 was lifted this fall and the recent renovations to the Hospital in Ste. Anne.

The issue of the collapse of the Ste. Adolphe bridge will probably have an impact in the riding but it’s difficult to say how it will play out. It could play to the Tories advantage if they say it’s a sign of the broader neglect of the area’s infrastructure by the province or it could be seen as the government finding the problem before someone got hurt and that they fixed it in a somewhat reasonable time frame (Construction was scheduled to be finished at the end of 2010).

At the end of the day, I believe both parties recognize the importance of the riding and the race in the riding will be very competitive.

By-election day x 3 predictions!

Since predicting election results is always a good way to have some fun.

Here are my predictions:

Winnipeg North:

Kevin Chief and the NDP take it with a range of 35 to 40% of the ballots. Kevin Lamoureux and the Liberals come up 2nd with 28 to 33% of the vote and Julie Javier comes up third with 20 to 25% of the vote. I also think turnout will be around the 40% mark.

Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette

I expect Conservative candidate to Robert Sopuk to handily win. Although he probably won't break the 61% threshold Inky had, I bet he still wins with a healthy 48 to 53% of the vote. I think the NDP will finish in the high twenties and the Liberals in the high teens or low twenties. Of all the three by-elections today, I think this one will have the lowest voter turnout around the 35% mark.

In Vaughan, I will go with Julian Fantino. Even though the riding had been a Liberal stronghold under Maurizio Bevilacqua, I think it will go to the Conservatives.

I think that after so many years of one MP people might be looking for a change. Also from what I read it might have been Bevilacqua's personal popularity and not so much the Liberal Party brand that kept this seat safe for so long.

I think this by-election will see the highest turnout of the three, around the 45% mark, with a breakdown of 38 to 42% for Fantino, 33 to 38% for Genco, and the NDP candidate,Kevin Bordian to get around the 15% mark.

Health and wealth over the past 200 years

Ridings to watch

I would first like to apologize for the lack of substantive posts in the past few weeks. I've been busy with school and I haven't been able to dedicated as much time as I would of liked to the blog. I hope that after this week once things slow down a bit I will have a chance to take a look at the throne speech and write a post on it.

Today's post is the first in a series in which I will examine what I think are the ridings to watch in the next provincial election. I've based my list on factors such as, incumbency, the 2007 election results, the impact of redistribution and party activity in the riding. (The numerical order of the list is just the order I plan on examining each riding.)

My list of ridings to watch:

1. Dawson Trail
   
2. River Heights
   
3. River East
   
4. Kirkfield Park
   
5. Brandon West
   
6. Portage la Prairie
   
7. Riel
   
8. Fort-Garry Riverview
   
9. Dauphin
   
10. Southdale
    

For example, Portage la Prairie is on the list for two reasons, a close result in 2007 and the fact that current MLA David Faurschou will not be seeking re-election.

For the PCs to be able to able to get back into government a minimum of 10 seats must swing in their favour. This is a big task because not only do they need to pick up a large amount of seats they must keep the ones they already have which is no guarantee. Three of the seats on my lists are already held by the PCs. Later I also hope to create a top list of target ridings for each party.

But for now it's back to writing papers.

Updated:I'm eating my cookie!!!

Wow...


Updated: Mr. Duckett has issued an apology.

There are no words...

Another reason why hockey players shouldn't act...