Ridings to Watch: Dawson Trail

The first riding I want to profile, is a new riding in the province’s southeast. 

While this riding is technically a new, non-held riding, I see it as Ron Lemieux’s riding. Given that Lemieux is from Lorette and that his main centres of support, Ste. Anne and Lorette are in this riding, I’d be very surprised if he did not run in this riding. I fully expect Lemieux to run in this riding and not the redesigned La Vérendrye.  The riding is also important to the NDP as it is their only representation in rural southern Manitoba. From my knowledge the Tories and Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate for the riding.

The fact Ste-Anne was placed in Dawson Trail and not in La Vérendrye, as was the case in the proposed redistribution, helps Lemieux’s re-election bid immensely. The support Lemieux received in those towns was crucial to his victory. But the fact that the town of Landmark is now in the riding helps the Tories.

In the last election Lemieux won by a comfortable margin, garnering 51% of the votes and winning 4,018 to 2,973. But I think, given the redistribution, the province wide mood for change, and certain local issues, the riding will be a lot more competitive in 2011.

If the PCs want to form government next October, this riding is an important key to that puzzle. A strong local bilingual candidate would go a long way to help the Tories election bid in the riding.

I think some of the local issues at play that will hurt the NDP and Lemieux in the riding are compensation for damages to crops caused by the Floodway in the R.M. of Ritchot and the issue of the old Villa Youville in Ste. Anne.  However, two issues that might help Lemieux in the riding are: the fact that the town of Lorette’s boil water advisory that had been in place since 2005 was lifted this fall and the recent renovations to the Hospital in Ste. Anne.

The issue of the collapse of the Ste. Adolphe bridge will probably have an impact in the riding but it’s difficult to say how it will play out. It could play to the Tories advantage if they say it’s a sign of the broader neglect of the area’s infrastructure by the province or it could be seen as the government finding the problem before someone got hurt and that they fixed it in a somewhat reasonable time frame (Construction was scheduled to be finished at the end of 2010).

At the end of the day, I believe both parties recognize the importance of the riding and the race in the riding will be very competitive.