Yesterday St-Norbert MLA Marilyn Brick announced she wouldn't be running for re-election. Dan Lett has a really interesting piece on the nomination battle and potential leadership issues within the NDP here.
While the news of the retirement is good for the PCs, Lett's piece must have the PC's in an even better mood.
Let me explain, contesting the nomination of a sitting MLA will always make you enemies. Like Lett pointed out, there are probably now two entrenched camps in the riding. While Brick's decision to retire and not fully challenge for her seat does cool down the tensions, most likely they are still high.
Gurmail Mangat will most likely bring in some new blood and energy, however some will feel left out and may disengage. A divided membership is not a good way to enter a campaign.
The second factor that probably makes the PCs happy is that the Liberals seem to have a semi-decent candidate in Marcel Laurendeau. A former PC MLA he is most likely to attract a decent amount of support.
This is how I could see the scenario unfold in October to lead to a PC victory in St-Norbert. Given the situations the PCs will be running a strong campaign in the riding to start off.
The key in the riding for all parties will be small l liberals that switch between the NDP and Liberals. The loss of incumbency, a divided and not necessarily full strength NDP base in combination with a stronger challenge from the Liberals might result in a split left and centre-left vote and a PC victory.In past elections a weaker Liberal Party has benefited the NDP and a stronger one the PCs. I think the strength of the Liberals in this riding will have a big impact on the final result.
Laurendeau "semi-decent"? He was a respected 13-year MLA!
ReplyDeletethe reason I qualified Laurendeau as semi-decent is, as you rightly pointed out he was a respected MLA for 13 years, because of the whole kidnapped in trunk episode and the party switching.
ReplyDeleteAs I said in my post about Rocco Rossi, I don't personally see a problem with party switching (blue liberal red tory type of deal) but a lot of electors do.
Hence the qualification of semi-decent and if you want to qualify him as decent to good or even great candidate for the Liberals I think my speculation holds even more.
I think you have a good point. Historically a strong Liberal vote benefits the PCs. However if Brick had run, it may have actually benefitted her. Laurendeau is a Red Tory so he may have siphoned some soft votes from the Conservatives. Should be interesting to see how this plays out considering May was a one trick pony in the civic election and her family's political colors are all over the map.
ReplyDeleteI think if anything, Laurendeau would siphon off more support from the Tories than the NDP - as an ex-Tory MLA
ReplyDeleteWhile I'm sure some PC supporters will back Laurendeau, the reason I think Laurendeau will siphon off more NDP support than Tory support is two fold.
ReplyDeleteFirst I think some small l liberal supporters who are tired of the NDP and want change will defect to the Libs rather than the PC.
Second I think most PC supporters will see this as their chance to get back into power and will most likely support Karen Velthuys rather than Laurandeau.