96° 48' 35" From the Centre: October 2011

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Action Canada Public Dialogues on Inequality, Green Energy and Creativity

Since April I have been a fellow with the Action Canada program. Action Canada is a national fellowship that offers leadership development for early-career professionals with an interest in public policy through cross-country conferences that enhance an understanding of Canada and public policy choices for our future. Fellows are chosen from all sectors, including business, science, government, academia and the professions.

Part of the program includes preparing a Task Force Report and public dialogue on a public policy issue facing Canada today. This year, Action Canada is hosting its public dialogue on November 4 at the University of Winnipeg's Convocation Hall from 7:30 to 12:30. Throughout the morning, three diverse panels of experts will address three public policy issues.

Panel 1: Prospering Together: How inequality and poverty are jeopardizing Canada’s human capital potential and economic future

The first panel will examine the potential for rising inequality and persistent poverty to undermine Canada’s prosperity in the knowledge-based economy. Since the 1980s, the top 20% of Canadian income earners have seen $27,000 added to their average incomes, while the incomes of the bottom 60% have essentially remained stagnant. Income inequality is rising faster in Canada than it is in the United States, by far the most unequal advanced economy in the world. Inequality and poverty are associated with a number of social problems that threaten full economic participation, including poor health and literacy, as well as economic segregation. This panel will explore the issues as well as policy recommendations that enhance human capital formation by reducing inequality and poverty – to harness the potential of the entire population in the drive to make Canada a leader in the knowledge-based economy. http://www.prosperingtogether.ca

Panelists:
Armine Yalnizyan
Economist, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives

Jim Milway
Executive Director, Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity

John Curtis
Professor, Queen’s University

Panel 2: New Ideas for financing Canada’s low-carbon energy future

The second panel will address the future financing of Canada’s low-carbon energy. As global energy demand continues to rise, high-carbon fuels such as oil and coal will become scarce, which, combined with climate change, will drastically increase the cost of energy. But considering that cleantech is an expensive venture, how can it be financed? This dialogue seeks to explore these issues.

Panelists:
Elizabeth Huculak
Vice-President, World Alliance for Decentralized Energy Canada (WADE) and founder E5 Projects

Tom Rand
Advisor at MaRS; Author of “Kick the Fossil Fuel Habit, 10 Clean Technologies to Save Their World”

Franz Tattenbach
President and CEO of the International Institute for International Development; former negotiator and climate change ambassador for Costa Rica at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC)

Alex Wood
Senior Director of Policy and Markets, Sustainable Prosperity and former acting CEO and President of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE).

Panel 3: Our Home and Creative Land: Developing Canada’s Creative Workforce for Tomorrow

The third task force is examining the question of how to train Canadian workers to be more creative. Creativity is the genesis of innovations across all sectors when developing new ideas, products and services. The ability to further leverage the economic potential of those innovations will increase prosperity in Canada. This project examines how a national training program that enhances creative skills can be developed and delivered for Canada’s workforce. For more information you can visit www.creativecanadians.com

Panelists:

Dave Angus
President and CEO of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce

Catherine Graham
Author and founder of CMG Creativity

Alan Freeman

British economist and visiting fellow at the University of Manitoba

Mary Corrigan
Founder and Principal Tracking the Wisdom

I highly encourage everyone with an interest in any of these topics to attend and to please help spread the word about this event!

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

On Pride, the Jets and the election

So did the return of the Jets really help give the NDP in Manitoba a fourth term?

I'm going to argue that yes it did, indirectly. I believe the reason the NDP were able to win government again can be attribute in large part to one emotion: Pride. Or more specifically the explosion of it in the City and the Province and the NDPs ability to connect their messaging to this emotion.

Before the announcement of the return of the Jets, the PCs were enjoying a sizable lead in the polls and their message of change was connecting with voters. After twelve years of NDP government, while not overly discontent, Manitobans were feeling it was maybe time for a change in government. That it would be healthy, it was a message that was safe and connected with voters to a certain extent.

The return of the Jets didn't fundamentally change this idea that it might be time for a change but it introduced a stronger more dominant feeling in Manitoba's public consciousness: pride.

While Winnipeg's and Manitoba's pride hadn't evaporated when the Jets left, it had suffered a large set back. No doubt people had been proud of what Manitoba had accomplished over the past decade but we were never super boastful about it.

However, the return of the Jets gave us that reason to now be loudly boastful about how well we were doing. In addition, we cannot ignore the Bombers success in this fostering this feeling of pride. Just take the team's nickname: Swaggerville... It was another loud, boastful expression of pride. The entire province embraced this new boastful almost cocky demeanor. 2011 became the summer to brag about being from Manitoba.

Now the return of pride couldn't of guaranteed the re-election of the NDP but they won re-election due to the fact their messaging captured this feeling of pride. Rob Ford was able to win on connecting with the public sentiment that tax dollars weren't being used efficiently in Toronto. Just as the message of respect for the taxpayer was perfect for the time in Toronto, Pride was the word of the day for this fall in Manitoba.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Will it be a Progressive or a Conservative? Rural or Urban?

As expected, a list of potential replacements for Hugh McFadyen is already being compiled. There is a lot of talk about how the next leader needs to be from the Winnipeg in order to win in the City. I have to say I disagree. What the PCs need is a leader that can connect with voters in the City not necessarily a leader from the city. There is an important difference. Someone from rural Manitoba can just as well connect with a leader from outside the city. Automatically disqualifying someone with an address outside the perimeter is short sighted and unlikely to produce the desired results.

A second big question is whether or not the next leader will be from the "progressive" or red tory wing of the party or more from the "conservative" Blue Tory wing of the party. Given the fact that the past two leaders have been urban red tory faction, I fully expect for the rural blue tory to make a strong challenge and flex their membership muscle in this race. Also after seeing the success of the federal conservatives in the past election and the PCs inability to win with a more centrist platform in the last provincial election, I expect a shift to the right in this race for the party.

Whoever gets to be the leader after McFadyen is taking over the party in an envious position compared to when McFadyen took it over in 2006. When McFadyen took over the party the coffers were empty, the membership was at all time lows and moral was low. (Some great resources for the party's health in this area are Chirs Adam's and Thomas and Brown's books) Today while the party is demoralized after the defeat, the party has built a great fundraising machine and rebuilt it's membership base.

I fully expect someone from the rural more conservative wing of the party to make a strong challenge.In addition given the party's one member one vote system, gaining the support of rural areas will be key. While the membership base in Winnipeg has been expanded under McFadyen's leadership, when ridings such as Emerson, La Vérendrye, Winkler-Morden and the such are able to pull in 1400 memberships for nomination races they will play much more important roles than most seats in the City in the upcoming leadership race.

I expect Kelvin Goertzen, MLA for Steinbach, to be under great pressure from supporters in the south of the province and his own riding to make a run for it. Whether he will or not it's way too early to tell but if he were to jump in, he'd have to be considered an early front runner.

Another really interesting name being tossed around from rural Manitoba is Brian Pallister. I had the chance to meet Pallister this summer and he definitely had more of the populist touch than McFdayen. Having been away from it all for a few years might have left him itching for a comeback. In my opinion he is an example from rural Manitoba who could connect with urban voters.

As for names from the City it is interesting to hear the names of Brian Bowman, former PC Youth President and recently appointed chairman of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. This Free Press story is all I know about him so it's difficult to comment. In addition the names of Heather Stefanson, MLA for Tuxedo and Michael Richards party President and Ron Schuler, MLA for St-Paul are also being thrown around.

Also could one of Manitoba's female Conservatives MPs make the jump into the race? Shelly Glover's name is being mentioned in some lists but I think if Candice Hoeppner were to make the jump she would be a stronger contender than Glover given her rural roots and national profile.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

A few thoughts on last night

Well obviously last night didn't quite go the way I had hoped it would. It was needless to say a disappointing night. But congratulations to the NDP and thank you to all of those who got involved in the election as candidates or volunteers.

Here are just a few quick thoughts on the night's results:

1)The power of the incumbant:
It's hard to believe that in the end all of the tight races, or supposedly tight races, went to the incumbents. A challenger's inability to win tight races was shocking (both PC and NDP, but mostly PC). The PCs failed to win any of their "target seats." Even the NDP didn't weren't able their targets such as River East. (due to redistribution and the lack of incumbent I don't see Tyndall Park as a steal) I think this election says a lot about the power of the incumbent in this province.

2) Hugh deserved better.
I personally liked him a lot as a leader and wished he wouldn't of stepped down. I think he represented a solid moderate right of centre approach to politics. While I don't like his decision to step down I understand it. Even with winning 44% of the popular vote and finishing only 2pts behind the NDP in popular vote, the inability to translate that support in a larger seat count meant he would of faced an enormous leadership challenge.

3) Electoral reform?
Unfortunately I don't think we'll be seeing a discussion in this province surrounding this topic... While as of now I don't know if there is a system I'd advocate for a change to but after the results of the last federal election and now this election, I believe it is time for a real discussion on the subject.

4) Liberal Leadership speculation
While the PCs will be looking for a new leader (more on that at a later date), I'm guessing the Liberals will be looking for a new leader in the near future. Dr. Gerrard did commit to completing his term but I believe he will step down as leader soon and help build the party with a new leader over the next 4 years. Early names being thrown around Paul Hesse and Anita Neville...Which after Anita's defeat in May and Paul's weak result in Fort Rouge they might both be weary of throwing their hats in the race.

I'll have more on the fallout for both PC and Liberal parties in the next few days. I'll also have a post on cabinet speculation up soon!

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Why Baird needed new business cards!

The tall mountain to climb: riding by riding projection and thoughts on polls

The hill the PCs had to climb at the start of the election was big. Now with the recent polls that have come out it seems to have become a mountain.

While the PCs are polling at numbers that got them elected to majority governments in 1995 and 1990 (42% range), the collapse in Liberal numbers have boosted the NDP to even higher numbers. The two silver linings in the cloud for the PCs are the fact that their voters are slightly more committed to casting their ballots and that there is still a fairly high proportion of undecided voters (the Probe poll had 24% undecided or refusal).

Now with the poll numbers in, here are my predictions for the results on October 4th.

My methods to arrive at these predictions include a whole bunch of gut feeling, mixed in with wishful thinking tempered by a biased interpretation of poll results (i.e. these are more for fun than any serious commentary). If you want a real methodological approach to seat prediction, I refer you to to 308's predictions.

Precition notes:
1) The Liberals should win 1 seat but it won't be Dr. Gerrard or Paul Hesse. In my short time of being involved and following Manitoba politics, I've learned one thing: Do not bet against Kevin Lamoureux...So that's why I'm going with the Liberals in Tyndall Park. Now I might be wrong (I'm very often wrong but that's another discussion) but I've bet twice against Kevin in the past and got burnt. So please Kevin and Roldan do not let me down!

2) The way that's I've broken down my predictions are in three categories: confident winner, leaning but could swing and too close to call. The ridings that I think are too close to call at this point and hard to establish a clear leader are Dawson Trail, Dauphin and Seine River.

3) The one riding that to watch that is in play that I didn't think were on October 4th: Elmwood. From what I hear people are taking too kindly to Malloway coming back and the results of the federal and municipal elections puts it in play.

4) In my prediction I also assumed that the scenario where the PCs win 42 to 44% of the popular vote, the NDP come up with 39 to 41% and the Liberals between 8 and 10%. (This is where the gut feeling gets mixed in with the biased polling interpretation comes in).

5) In the end both the NPD and PC start from a solid base of 19 and 18 seats respectively wit the remaining seats leaning one way or another or being too close to call. Now I think the NDP is leading in 9 of those 20, the PCs 7, Liberals 1 and 3 being too close to call.

6) As of right now what I see happening is a 60% chance of the NDP forming a slim majority but the PCs could form government if the too close to call ridings go their way and they pick up a few upsets in the leaning seats. This election is in no way decided and every vote will count! The PCs are very much still in it and could pull through. The get out the vote becomes extremely important! So get out there and vote! (Most preferably for Vision, Change and Progress).

Riding by Riding Predictions