A centrist commenting on politics in Canada's middle province from the "Centre of the Universe"

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

what's in store for Manitoba politics in 2013?

NDP: Regaining their mojo?
Task 1: Gain control on the budget.
Manitoba's finances are in trouble. The government hasn't been able to manage the province's finances. Even with greater revenues, the deficit was larger than predicted. It is hard to believe the "fragile world economy" is the reason for greater deficits when revenues are higher than expected...

Task 2:  Find a "raison d'ĂȘtre." I challenge to name of key initiative or defining issue for Selinger? Bi-pole and Hydro are quickly falling into mismanagement fiascos rather than a defining legacy. There does not seem to be a driving goal for the NDP to take into the 2015 election. After 13 years of governing, parties can becoming complacent and we might be seeing the first signs of this with the NDP.

PC: Finding the right message
Task 1: Get back on track.
Communications need to be tightened up. After a good start with some solid policy ideas, the train got derailed with a disastrous December. They lost a great opportunity with the second quarter financial update to hammer the NDP on fiscal mismanagement but ended up playing defence.

Task 2:  Unite the team / balance the wings
Stories like this hurt. Even if there isn't a volunteer crunch, a narrative like this hurts the recruitment of new volunteers. The Maz episode also created more divisions. While Maz's controversial views were known to certain members they were tolerated due to the fact that he was a dedicated volunteer to the party. However his controversial views also kept some less zealous and more moderate volunteers away. As the Republicans and Tea Party have shown, moving farther to the right might motivate the dedicated base but ultimately it will lose elections.

Task 3: Idle no more
Aboriginals and First Nations are one of the fastest growing demographics and will play an important part in Manitoba's political future. They cannot write them off and the current dissatisfaction with the status-quo, especially with the NDP handling of CFS, offers the PC a great chance to make inroads in the community. A younger generation of first nations are much more pro-business and pro-development and there is an opening there for the party.

Mission Impossible? Breaking Fort Knox
It seems that breaking Fort Knox might be an easier task than breaking electorally into Winnipeg. The latest poll numbers had very little good news. They might be leading province wide and the youth numbers were good; the Winnipeg numbers were horrible. If anyone knows how to do this, I'm sure the PC Team would love to hear from you...

Liberals: Staying alive!
Task 1: Avoid irrelevance and generate excitement
The Manitoba Liberals have established a long leadership race to replace Dr. Gerrard. So far they have one declared candidate Robert Young while another potential candidate (Ajay Chopra) ruled himself out. There is still plenty of time to raise awareness for this race but having only one candidate is definitely not the way to do it. A one candidate race is a sure one way ticket to irrelevance.

Task 2: Replacing the Good Doctor with a Good Communicator
The past few elections the Liberals have been able to build solid platforms but have lacked a good communicator. While Harper proves that electoral success doesn't only come from a charismatic leader, he or she must be able to communicate. In replacing Gerrard, the Liberals first priority should be somehow who can communicate well above all else.




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