Can we compare the provincial NDP in 2011 with the federal Liberals in 2004?

The more and more I look at the upcoming provincial election, the more similarities with the 2004 federal election I find.  I know it isn't an analogous case but I have found some interesting similarities.

Here are some of the simple similarities:

• Both the NDP and the Liberals have been in power for 11 years and are hoping for a fourth straight majority. The one small difference here is that the NDP will have been in power for 12 years come election time.
  
   
• The NDP will be running its first campaign since the departure of a popular leader same as the federal Liberals in 2004.
  
   
• Like all governments who have government for more than a decade there is an urge for a change in government in the electorate.
  
   
• In 2004, the Liberals under Paul Martin were trying to shake off the sponsorship scandal which fed into the narrative that the Liberals were out of touch with the electorate, I think that in 2011 the stadium and Bipole III debate here in Manitoba might have a similar impact.
  
• A stronger and united opposition:  the 2004 federal election campaign was the first campaign for the new united Conservative Party. The fact that the right was divided in the previous elections had immensely helped the Liberals.  The past decade was not kind to the PC Party, but overcoming leadership and financial issues the party is much stronger this time around than the last few elections.
  

Now here is where I think it gets more interesting:

Over the weekend the NDP launched a website and an attack ad: www.knowhugh.ca. After seeing the website and the ad I could not help but make connections to the 2004 federal election campaign. The NDP running a hidden agenda and negative campaign against the leader is analogous to the campaign the federal Liberals ran in 2004. 

In 2004, the Liberals were able to retain a minority government but they ultimately fell to the Conservatives two years later. But when in 2006 the Liberals tried the same scare tactics and negative ads they failed. Eventually people just stopped believing the fear mongering and secret agenda message and elected Harper and the Conservatives. The fact that the Liberals had demonized Harper so much in previous campaigns likely helped his election in 2006 and re-election in 2008.

Now 11 months is a long time in politics, I think the NDP may have gone on the negative too early and the message won't stick for that long. Here are a few questions for discussion:

Do you think the NDP have gone on the negative too early and that Manitobans will tune out of the negative message after a while?

Do you think there are enough similarities between the 2004 election and the next provincial one?